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5-20 SL-5641 Final expecting 85% to 90% learning curve based on experience. Boeing has also identified cost improvements due to improved manufacturing and quantity discount of material, which are reasonable assumptions. Material and components are about 35% of receiver costs. The cost improvements are shown below in Table 5-11: Table 5-11 — Effect of Production Volume (Percent of Total Savings) Solar Solar One Two 1988 1999 Net Plant Size – Thermal, MWt 46 42 Total, % — — Solar Solar Solar Solar Solar Tres 50 100 200 220 2004 2006 2008 2012 2018 120 380 700 1,400 1,400 7% 14% 12% 5% — The cost improvements for technology, scaling, and production volume are shown below in Table 5-12: Table 5-12 — Cost Improvements for Technology, Scaling, and Production Volume Solar Two to Solar Tres Solar Tres to Solar 50 Solar 50 to Solar 100 Solar 100 to Solar 200 Solar 200 to Solar 220 Average Cost Reduction Due to Technical (Efficiency) 32% 35% 66% 65% 31% 46% Cost Reduction Due to Scaling 5.3.3.4 Conclusion 50% 43% 25% 24% 61% 41% Cost Reduction Due to Production Volume 18% 22% 9% 11% 8% 13% Sargent & Lundy reviewed the information provided and the capital cost and cost improvements are reasonable based on the following: • The Boeing cost estimate is based on actual costs from Solar Two, with adjustments to compensate for design improvements, manufacturing improvements, construction labor rates, and escalation. • The Boeing cost estimate is based on detailed design drawings and material take-offs (bottoms- up cost estimate), which provides a high degree of accuracy.PDF Image | Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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