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4-41 SL-5641 Final 4.6.3.1 Long Term (2020) The SunLab projected long-term net annual solar-to-electric efficiency is 17.2%, an improvement of 0.2 percentage points from the mid-term projected efficiency of 17.0%. This modest improvement is mainly attributable to operational improvements to reduce thermal losses and reducing the amount of dust on the envelope. There is a high risk of achieving the long-term net annual solar-to-electric efficiency of 17.2% due to the mid- term risks discussed previously. However, the risk is greatly reduced if the trough technology is successfully deployed to the extent that the competitive market prompts research and development of technological advances. 4.6.4 Total Investment Cost The major cost contributors in total investment cost of a parabolic trough solar plant with thermal storage are the solar collector field (53%), thermal storage system (23%), and the power block (14%). In combination with thermal storage, increased annual net efficiency, and reduced equipment cost via technology advancements, competition and deployment are the primary elements in reducing the long-term cost of the trough plant. 4.6.4.1 Near Term (2004) The SunLab projected near-term total investment cost, with the exception of the thermal storage, is based on actual values from the SEGS plants. Costs for components such as the HCE and mirrors are based on current pricing of replacement parts for the SEGS plants. The near-term indirect two-tank thermal storage system is based on cost estimates from detailed design drawings and material takeoffs developed by Nextant. The technological risk using the two-tank molten-salt storage system is low based on the successful utilization at the Solar Two plant. Estimated costs based on the SOAPP program indicate that the SunLab projected capital costs for the power block are conservative (on the high side), approximately $50/kW higher than estimated by the SOAPP program. The SunLab power block cost estimates are based on a 1990 ABB quotation for a 100-MW steam turbine. The ABB quotation was escalated and scaled-up for the larger sizes. The SunLab power block cost estimates are based on dated information and the escalation and scale-up factors add to the uncertainty of the data with respectPDF Image | Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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