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4-1 SL-5641 Final 4. EVALUATION OF POTENTIAL FOR COST REDUCTIONS — TROUGH 4.1 DEVELOPMENT PLAN FOR COST REDUCTION The SunLab trough model DueDiligence11–Excelergy11-14-01.xls (SunLab 2001) depicts the industry plan for long-term cost reduction. The industry plan keys on thermal storage to obtain a high capacity factor, which reduces the O&M costs ($/MWh) by obtaining a higher annual MWh generation. In combination with thermal storage, increased annual net efficiency, and reduced equipment cost via technology advancements, competition and deployment are primary elements in reducing the long-term capital costs of the trough plant. The parabolic trough industry has developed a proprietary plan to lower costs, emphasizing the near-term, which cannot be shared in detail since it would compromise their ability to compete in the domestic and international market. However, the SunLab model provides a cost estimate that closely follows the industry expectations for research and development advances in component and subsystem improvements. Whereas the SunLab plan for plant implementation assumes, for comparative purposes, the use of thermal storage starting in 2004, the U.S. trough industry is pursuing a commercialization plan that favors implementation of SEGS-type plants in the near-term. With this plan, industry has set cost goals that target a solar field cost less than $200/m2 and an installed plant cost in the 2,000–2,400 $/kW range by 2006. The industry considers this plan a low-risk approach, with plants similar to the existing SEGS type plants able to produce electricity in a hybrid model. By incorporating this hybrid option, the only increase to the solar-only portion of the project is the relatively small capital cost of a boiler cost of fuel and fuel costs during hybrid operation. Near-term development of this plan is shown below in Table 4-1. Table 4-1 — Near-Term Development for Trough Industry Case* Project In Service Baseline SEGS VI Hybrid 1989 30 22/34% ** 0.188 VP-1 Trough Industry Near Term Net Power (MWe) Capacity Factor (%) Solar Field (km2) Heat Transfer Fluid Trough 50 Hybrid (US) 2004 50 29/40% ** 0.312 VP-1 Trough 50 TES (Spain) 2004 50 47% 0.496 VP-1 Trough 40 ISCCS (GEF) 2004 40 28% 0.184 VP-1PDF Image | Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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