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3-3 SL-5641 Final market expansion, and market acceptance (Morse 2000). Deployment provides a means for continued research in technology improvements, cost reductions due to increased production, and economy of scale from constructing larger plants. The cost reduction analysis provided in this report is based on the assumption that trough and tower plants will be constructed. S&L’s review is based on a deployment range between 2.4 gigawatts-electrical (GWe) and 9.5 GWe of installed tower and trough solar power plants. The major cost reduction is from the increased size of the plant and increased electrical production. The cost reduction associated with increased volume production between 2.6 GWe and 9.5 GWe (from year 2004 to 2020) is about 10%. Estimates of tower and trough solar power plants deployment have been identified in several reports (Morse 2000). Comparison of these estimates and the SunLab and S&L estimates are shown in Figure 3-1. Figure 3-1 — Summary of CSP Worldwide Deployment Forecast 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 The commercialization path for trough and tower technologies was presented in the Morse report (2000) as occurring in five phases: pilot testing, commercial validation, commercial niche market (entry), market Enermodal Pilkington Sunlab 45 30 13.6 9.6 2.4 S&L Range 0.354 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Cummulative Installed Generation (GWe)PDF Image | Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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