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3-1 SL-5641 Final 3. POWER GENERATION MARKET AND DEPLOYMENT FORECAST The projections for electrical power consumption in the United States and worldwide vary depending on the study, but there will be a significant increase in installed capacity due to increased demand through 2020. Trough and tower solar power plants will compete with technologies that provide bulk power to the electric utility transmission and distribution systems. The following market entry barriers are the most significant to overcome: 3.1 • Market expansion of trough and tower technology will require incentives to reach market acceptance (competitive). Incentives include environmental (CO2 emission credits), favorable tax credits, favorable peak energy tariff, premium consumer pricing, loan guarantees, low interest loans, and grants. Both tower and trough technology currently produce electricity that is more expensive than conventional fossil-fueled technology. Analysis of incentives required to reach market acceptance is not within the scope of the report. • Significant cost reductions will be required to reach market acceptance (competitive). Cost reductions occur from technical improvements, increase in plant size (scaling), and volume production (learning curves). This report focuses on the potential of cost reductions with the assumption that incentives will occur that will support deployment through market expansion. POWER GENERATION MARKET There are several recent studies that discuss the market for CSP technology (Teagan 2001; World Bank 1999; EERE 2002). A number of international and national project developments for commercial or commercial-entry trough or tower power plants typically in the capacity range of 15 MWe to 100 MWe are being pursued by the industry. These entry opportunities largely arise from activities of the Global Environment Facility,* selected nations and U.S. programs on Renewable Portfolio Standards, or other incentives to encourage renewable energy systems. A summary of the current market is as follows: • Global Environmental Facility. The Global Environmental Facility (GEF) has identified CSP technology as one of their renewable energy options, and has approved four $50M grants for CSP solar power plants in India, Egypt, Morocco, and Mexico. • United States. The parabolic trough industry (specifically Duke Solar Energy) is aggressively pursuing individual IPP projects opportunities in Nevada, California, Arizona, and Oregon as * The Global Environment Facility (GEF) helps developing countries fund projects and programs that protect the global environment. Established in 1991, GEF is the designated financial mechanism for international agreements on biodiversity, climate change, and persistent organic pollutants. GEF also supports projects that combat desertification and protect international waters and the ozone layer. GEF funding comes via the World Bank and UNDP.PDF Image | Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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