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1-4 SL-5641 Final Differences between the SunLab and S&L cost estimates were a result of different assumptions. For example, S&L increased the duration between the deployment of the next generation plant from 1 year to 2 years to account for lessons learned and an adequate time for steady-state operation. The differences in assumptions are identified in the main body of the report. 1.3.3 Technical Improvements Projected technical improvements that reduce costs by improving plant efficiency or by reducing initial capital costs were evaluated with respect to probability of the improvement and the estimated magnitude of cost reduction. The projected technical improvements investigated were those identified in the SunLab models, and the probability and magnitude of cost reductions are based on data from DOE, NREL, SNL, and members of the CSP industry, including technology assessments and supporting studies for troughs and towers. 1.3.4 Economy of Scale Economy of scale was used, as appropriate; to estimate or evaluate cost estimates for components. Scaling factors were used to estimate the cost of a new size or capacity from the known cost for a different size or capacity. 1.3.5 Volume Production (Volume and Learning Curve) Experience curves define how unit costs decrease with cumulative production. The specific characteristics of the experience curve are that the cost declines by a constant percentage with each doubling of the total number of units produced (Neij 1997). Many of the previous studies that assessed the cost reduction potential for tower and trough technologies based their findings on experience curves (World Bank 1999). As pointed out in the Teagan report (2001), “the review documents do not make a strong case that the cost of technologies (particularly the solar field) can be reduced to a point that they approach economic viability....” His primary example was the collector field: “the ‘learning curve’ arguments put forth lack sufficient backup to be credible given the fact that the materials of construction are already commodities and the fabrication techniques, for the most part standard.” He also stated that he believed cost reductions are likely “via a combination of ‘learning curve’ and technology refinement.” In response, S&L performed a thorough review of the cost reduction potential for heliostats. Heliostat cost reduction potential is more difficult to estimate since it is not based on actual costs of significant volume, whereas trough costs and the cost reductions are known based on actual SEGS construction data and recent costsPDF Image | Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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