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ES-13 SL-5641 Final cost of components of a new size or quantity from the known cost for a different size or capacity. The risk of achieving the cost improvements projected by S&L from economy of scale is low based on (a) using well- established scaling factor ratios from industry data (e.g. balance of plant, receivers, and electric power system) or (b) if no data are available, then using scaling factors slightly more conservative than the industry average. The risk of achieving the cost improvements from volume production projected by S&L is low based on using a progress ratio of 0.97, which is at the upper end of published data. Various studies on learning curves from actual data suggest a progress ratio of 0.82 for development of photovoltaics and 0.95 for development of wind power. Key Tower Technology Conclusions Solar plant and power plant scale-up provide the largest cost reduction opportunity for power tower technologies. • Scale-up of the tower solar plant requires a total redesign and re-optimization of the field, tower, and receiver. This greatly reduces capital and O&M costs, but has only a small effect on efficiency. R&D support in the design, development, and testing of larger receivers, larger heliostats, and larger heliostat fields will reduce scale-up risk. • Scale-up of the steam turbine increases efficiency, and reduces capital and O&M costs. Probability of success here is very high, as no development is required until high-efficiency supercritical steam turbines become available (2020). Key technical advances include increasing receiver solar flux levels, development of new heliostat designs with significantly lower costs, and the use of new highly efficient steam turbines. • Increased receiver flux levels have been demonstrated at the prototype scale and require improved heliostat field flux monitoring/management systems and design optimization for use at large plants. • Revolutionary heliostat designs with significantly lower cost have been proposed that use flexible, durable thin mirrors with a lower-weight ‘stretched-membrane’ design that can be manufactured in high volumes. Other novel designs like inflatable/rolling heliostats are also possible. • High-efficiency supercritical steam turbines are now being demonstrated that operate at temperatures compatible with current tower technology or at temperatures that require increasing the operating temperature of the tower technology to 600°–650°C. The major volume manufacturing benefit evaluated for tower technology was related to heliostats. • Heliostat cost reduction will occur when they are produced at high volume. Sargent & Lundy’s evaluation of the current heliostat design and cost indicated that cost should decrease 3% withPDF Image | Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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