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Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts

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Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts ( assessment-parabolic-trough-and-power-tower-solar-technology )

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LEC ES-12 SL-5641 Final Variation Project Cost Increasing Cost of Equity by 1% Increasing Construction Period to 2 Years Increase in Capital Cost by 10% Increase in Annual O&M Cost by 20% Ownership Utility Ownership Municipal Utility Ownership Technology & Deployment Increased Deployment from 2.6 GWe to 8.7 GWe Advanced Technology Case with Advanced Heliostat and High Temperature Turbine- Generator (from 16.5% to 17.4%) Worst Case Efficiency (from 16.5% to 14.6%) Tower Technology Risk Analysis $0.0588 7.6% $0.0577 5.4% $0.0595 8.7% $0.0561 2.6% $0.0526 -3.8% $0.0406 $0.0524 -4.2% -25.7% The major risk for tower solar plants to reach market acceptance (competitiveness) is the incentives that will allow the plant to be competitive with current non-renewable cost of generating power. Assuming incentives are provided, the risk for achieving cost reduction over the next 10–20 years is low to average. The capital cost estimate for the initial deployment was developed by SunLab based on actual costs for Solar Two, the Central Receiver Utility Studies, the AD Little heliostat detailed cost estimate, detailed heliostat design from ATS, and industry data. S&L reviewed published cost data and updated the information to include the latest cost estimate for receivers from Boeing, electrical power generation system and balance-of-plant costs from the EPRI SOAPP program and S&L’s internal database, and increased contingencies. The S&L estimate is 15% higher than the SunLab estimate, which is within an acceptable range. Cost reductions are achieved from technology improvements, economy of scale, and volume production. The risk of achieving the technology improvements projected by S&L is low based on demonstrated technology, design enhancements from lessons learned during Solar Two, improved advances in control technology since Solar Two, and ongoing research by Boeing. Economy of scale is a well-established method of estimating the -11.0% $0.0590 7.9% $0.0487

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