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ES-10 SL-5641 Final Differences and Rational for the S&L Tower Technology Projection The DOE Concentrating Solar Power Program has developed detailed baseline cost and performance data for the power tower technology. In addition, detailed technology R&D plans specify how these technologies are expected to change over time. DOE also has established assumed plant deployment forecasts over time. The S&L due-diligence-like approach used in this study reviewed the technology cost, performance, technology R&D, and deployment assumptions and identified the areas where the assumptions have not been fully demonstrated. The S&L review was based on discussions with SunLab, interaction with the CSP industry, input from other experts, and S&L in-house technical expertise. The projected levelized energy costs of electricity in 2020 estimated by S&L are 65% higher than the projections by SunLab. The main differences and rational for the S&L projections are the following: • Sargent & Lundy did not assume deployment of the advanced high temperature turbine and heliostats in 2020, whereas the SunLab assumed deployment in 2018. • Sargent & Lundy cost estimate for heliostats, which are about 45% of the total cost, are about 10% higher. The S&L estimate is based on our evaluation of cost estimates prepared by SunLab, AD Little, Advanced Thermal Systems, Solar Kinetics, and Winsmith. S&L used a contingency of 10% as compared to SunLab of 5%. S&L estimated deployment at about 25% of the SunLab estimate to take into consideration a realistic duration between the first and second deployment and between increases in plant size. S&L manufacturing costs are higher as a result of our evaluation • Sargent & Lundy estimated the costs for steam turbines and balance of plant costs using the EPRI SOAPP model, compared to S&L’s internal cost database and adjusted for labor and productivity rates in the southwestern states. The S&L estimate for steam turbines were less than SunLab. The S&L estimates for balance-of-plant costs were higher than SunLab. • The S&L receiver capital costs are based on a cost estimate provided by Boeing. Boeing was the supplier of the Solar Two receiver and is providing the receiver for Solar Tres. • Sargent & Lundy estimated that the engineering, management, and development to be 15% of the capital cost as compared to SunLab estimate of 7.8%. • SunLab included a risk pool contingency of 10% for Solar Tres, and S&L concurs with this value. In addition, S&L included a risk pool contingency of 5% for Solar 50. • S&L included a contingency of 12% for direct costs and 15% for cost reduction, in comparison to SunLab’s contingency of 7.8%PDF Image | Assessment of Parabolic Trough and Power Tower Solar Technology Cost and Performance Forecasts
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