roadmap for sodium-ion batteries

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J. Phys. Energy 3 (2021) 031503 N Tapia-Ruiz et al 8.2. Techno-economic assessment Emmanuel I Eweka1 and Grant S Stone2 1 Amte Power Ltd, 153A Eastern Avenue, Milton Park, Oxford OX14 4SB, United Kingdom 2 Amte Power Ltd, Denchi House, Thurso Business Park, Thurso, Caithness KW14 7XW, United Kingdom Status Batteries using conventional Lithium-ion chemistries (LIBs) have long since been the power source solution of choice in a range of applications due to their high volumetric and gravimetric energy densities. Energy-dense, state-of-the-art LIBs in the pouch and cylindrical formats are currently achieving energy densities of up to 250 Wh kg−1 [294]. Beyond the current LIB designs, bulk all-solid-state batteries (ASSBs) are also being developed [295] to provide a significant increase in energy density (>400 Wh kg−1) and safety and to address the range anxiety with electric vehicles. However, it is not believed that the first generation will be a cost-effective solution for stationary (grid, renewables, telecoms, and domestic) applications, and timescales to market for a competitively performing product are expected to be way beyond 2025. Other ‘beyond-lithium’ chemistries, such as Li-air and rechargeable magnesium batteries, are still at very early stages of R&D [294]. Current analyses are focused on non-aqueous battery systems. For stationary and telecoms applications, size and weight are less limiting than, say, cost, safety, ease of maintenance, reliability, and cycle life. Therefore, this techno-economic assessment focuses on applications where it is believed that NIBs will be competitive, at least in the near term (5–10 years) based on their current state of development. Some of these application areas include stationary and telecoms. Their inherently low material cost and high technology safety make NIBs a very attractive proposition for stationary applications [252]. In addition to being made in similar formats to LIBs, NIBs can be made on existing LIB manufacturing lines—significantly reducing development costs and timescales. Current high-performance LIBs are considered less accessible (and safe) for these applications, although they have been proposed for second-life use [296]. Based on economics, Pb-acid and LiFePO4 (LFP) are the current cathode chemistries of choice for stationary applications, compared to either LiNi1–x–yMnxCoyO2 (NMC) or LiNi1–x–yCoxAlyO2 (NCA). NIBs using a layered oxide, NaMO2 (where M stands for Ni, Mn, Mg, or Ti) P2/O3-type structure and hard carbons (HCs) have been significantly advanced by Faradion and look very promising for stationary applications [297]. Low-cost NIBs based on Prussian blue analogue (PBA) anodes and cathodes and sodium vanadium fluorophosphates (NVPF) are also being developed by Natron energy and Tiamat respectively [298], but are considered less competitive for these applications, predominantly on a gravimetric and volumetric energy basis. Using various cost models including BatPac, € kWh−1 has been estimated for NIB (NaMO2/HC), LFP and NMC (40%Ni:40%Mn:20%Cobalt), 18 650 cells, respectively [267, 296]. The BatPac model included cell-design elements, depreciation, and warranty in addition to material and processing costs. The outputs from these models indicate comparable costs for LFP cells and NIBs (and lower costs for NMC cells). The models also indicate that the € kWh−1 for NIBs can be significantly decreased with volume-scale manufacturing and if the Wh kg−1 and Wh l−1 can be increased. Current and Future challenges Global energy demand is predicted to grow by up to 40% in the next ten years, including an increase of 2500 TWh in the transport sector, and the global power capacity of solar and wind are planned to be 2 TW and 1.5 TW, respectively, in the same timescale [299]. Combined with a global push to reduce fossil-fuel reliance, this will create a massive market for energy storage. Competitive battery technologies covering a wide performance, safety, and cost matrix will be required to support this growth [300]. In the short term, the first generation of NIBs has to prove that it is a contender in the energy-storage market, in terms of competitive performance, safety, cost, and maintenance, compared to incumbent technologies, such as Pb-acid, LIBs (LFP and NMC), and redox-flow batteries. The cost of development, production, and time to market will also have to be factored in. One of the major challenges in this space will be to match or, if possible, outperform state-of-the-art LIB cathodes such as NMC on a cost/performance, (€ kWh−1) basis and fit in with existing infrastructure. The majority of new stationary energy-storage installations use LIBs (currently, mostly LFP), which have benefitted from cost reductions and innovations in the EV market [300], and a bulk cost reduction could allow for a quick entrance into this application. Another major short-term challenge facing all new energy-storage markets is regulation and policy. Concerns around safety and the decisions to invest in different types of infrastructure will have a huge impact on the demand for energy storage and the associated costs of installation and use [300]. Future challenges will lie in securing and maintaining a competitive edge over other developing technologies. LIB roadmaps are looking at novel materials and architectures to increase energy density and reduce cost per 78

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