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Chapter 5 Economic analysis in a shorter time. Figure 5.7, for instance, graphically shows the concept taking ICE GAS configuration as reference: in particular, the progressive Net Present Values over the years for three loan conditions (100% and 50% of the whole investment and no loan) are being presented. 6000 4000 2000 1 MWel - ICE GAS - PBT and NPV vs loan amount -2000 -4000 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Years 100% loan 50% loan No loan Figure 5.7 – Loan effect on Net Present Value and PayBack Time. As specified in Section 5.2.3, in the present work a loan raise covering 50% of installation costs has been hypothesised: in the examined case, this leads to a PBT of about 1.5 years (given by the point in which the curve reaches zero). Without raising a loan, the real initial disbursement would be twofold: the absence of interests would lead to higher cash flows, so that the related NPV curve would gradually approach and finally reach the 50% one, but PBT would be considerably higher (in particular 2.75 years). On the other hand, raising a 100% loan, PayBack Time would not even be defined, since progressive Net Present Value would always be positive: actually there would not be any initial disbursement. Naturally in this case interests would be very high and final NPV again would result to be roughly equal to the other two cases (the actual value then depends on the choice of the various economic parameters). In case of real investments, loans are always raised and thus the hypothesis made in this work can be considered correct: it is not a contrivance to keep PayBack Times low. On the other hand, the actual amount obviously varies from case to case and the effect on PBT changes accordingly. 187 NPV [k€]PDF Image | SMALL-SCALE BIOMASS POWER GENERATION
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