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Plan de Energías Renovables 2011- 2020. generando ganancias de eficiencia a lo largo de la vida útil de los equipamientos incorporados. A continuación se detalla la evolución de varios indicadores energéticos globales y sectorizados, dentro del escenario de referencia. 3.3.2 Evolución 2010-2020 del consumo de energía primaria En el contexto del escenario de referencia, el consumo de energía primaria alcanzará prácticamente los 166 Mtep, véase la tabla 3.3.1, con un incremento del 25,7% respecto al nivel del 2010. En este escenario, la falta de medidas de eficiencia adicionales conduce a un crecimiento progresivo de la demanda a una tasa media de un 2,3%. Tabla 3.3.1. Escenario de referencia: consumo de energía primaria ktep 2005 2010 2015 2020 Carbón Petróleo Gas natural Nuclear Energías renovables Saldo electr.(Imp.-Exp.) 21.183 71.765 29.116 14.995 8.371 -116 8.271 62.358 31.003 16.102 14.910 -717 10.536 61.046 44.190 14.490 20.593 -966 10.046 62.199 52.341 14.490 27.878 -1.032 Total energía primaria 145.314 131.927 149.889 165.921 Fuente: MITyC/IDAE Nota: En lo que respecta al uso del carbón y su aportación a la generación eléctrica y al suministro de energía primaria consignado en los cuadros de planificación energética, se ha supuesto que será compatible y conforme al marco europeo en la materia. La evolución al año 2020 de la demanda primaria de energía muestra el efecto coyuntural de la crisis, véase la figura 3.3.1. A partir del 2011 se constata un repunte progresivo en la demanda, algo moderado por el efecto inducido de las medidas de eficiencia implantadas en el marco del Plan de Acción de Ahorro y Eficiencia, 2008- 2012. Con posterioridad al periodo señalado por este plan no se contemplan, como ya se mencionó anteriormente, medidas adicionales de eficiencia dentro de este escenario de referencia. Figura 3.3.1. Escenario de referencia: evolución del consumo de energía primaria 59PDF Image | PLAN DE ENERGIAS RENOVABLES
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