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Plan de Energías Renovables 2011- 2020. Efectivamente, tal y como se puede ver en la gráfica adjunta, los yacimientos marginales con los costes más elevados necesitan un precio del crudo de los 100 $/barril para llegar a cubrir estos costes. Figura 3.2.2. Coste de explotación de los 230 proyectos de explotación y producción más importantes Break-even comercial(US$/bbl) 100 80 60 40 Cascade & Chinook BS-4 Low Tier 1 África Occidental (25-35$) Shaikan Aruana Waimea Tupi Northeast Franco Florim Guara Primrose East California Hamaca Upper Zakum expansion Kizomba Satellites Iara Surrounding Area Block 15-06 Jubilee Tempa Rossa MKB Uganda, Blocks 1, 2 &3 TGT Guara South Tweneboa Jidong Nanpu Jackfish Abare West Lula & Cernambi Patos Marinza Shale Pipeline Iara Delaware Basin Horizontal Eagle Ford Nabiye Lucapa Pazflor Knotty Head Block 18 West Amal Itaipu Kodiak Wahoo Vesuvio Akri Bijeel Gumusut El Merk Carioca Umm al-Lulu Caesar Tonga Appomattox Freedom Mars B Bonga SW Aparo Peregrino Egina Perdido Clair Ridge Shenandoah Usan Big Foot BosiBlock 31 NE Tiber Sunrise Bakken Shale Granite Wash Block 17 CLOV Jack/St Malo Pike Lucius Block 31 SE Narrows Lake 20 0 5 10 15 20 Fuente: BCG Como se puede apreciar en las siguientes gráficas, los escenarios definidos están en línea con los manejados por instituciones internacionales como la Agencia Internacional de la Energía (IEA, en sus siglas en inglés), y la Energy Information Administration (EIA) del Departamento de Energía de Estados Unidos y con los precios de los futuros sobre el crudo (estos últimos para los primeros años de proyección). Figura 3.2.3. Precios del crudo Brent en los escenarios base, alto y bajo Block 31 West Kaskida Block 32 Phase 1 Grouse Leismer Vito Kirby Rosebank Nsiko Hebron Usiko Marlner Bressay Goliat Thickwood Buckskin Kearl LakeMacKay River Expansion Stones xxx Líquidos no convencionales (>40$) Point Thomson Lower Zakurn Liquids Firebag Waha (North Gialo & NC-98) Membro Siri Greater Thornbury Area Block 32 Phase 2Amal Steam Carmon Creek Suzunskoye & Tagulskoye SAS expansion Carabobo 1 MTPS Al Ghubar Harweel Frontier Northern Lights Joslyn Dover Papa Terra Russkoye Junin 5 Ofon 2 Fort Hills Ugnu Pearl GTL 1. Proyectos con buenos "economics" (pozos conectados directamente a campos cercanos, buenos yacimientos) Nota: Las estimaciones de break-even no incluyen el coste de adquisición/exploración del área que si son incluidos conducirían a break-evens mayores. Esto puede ser particularmente importante para los campos onshore en Norteamérica Fuente: Goldman Sachs, análisis BCG Producción pico acumulada (Mb/d) Escenario base Escenario bajo Precio del petróleo, $ constantes 2010 ($/bbl) Escenario alto Precio del petróleo, $ constantes 2010 ($/bbl) Precio del petróleo, $ constantes 2010 ($/bbl) 210 210 210 140 201 176 133 140 126 140 123 116 70 70 70 51 000 EIA Base EIA Short-term Escenario Base Forward ICE Brent IEA Base Golfo de México Mid tier África Occidental (45-65$) Crudo Pesado Aguas-Profundas Bajo terciario Golfo de México Ultra profundo África Occidental (65-80$) 92 78 Arenas Bituminosas (85-95$) Crudo Pesado Térmico (50-75$) Crudo Pesado Internacional (35-45$) Presalino Brasil (30-50$) Proyectos con break-even >100$ • Kashagan (121) • Prirazlom (110) • Nasr (109) • Novoportovskoye (108) • Yurubchenko-Tahomskoye (102) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 EIA Bajo IEA Bajo Escenario Bajo 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 EIA Alto IEA Alto Escenario Alto 51PDF Image | PLAN DE ENERGIAS RENOVABLES
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