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Chapter 1 1.1 Energy Scenario Energy provision is one of the major challenges for the Human Society, and it is increasingly clear that the current production/consumption model is not sus- tainable, due to the wake of consequences induced by the exhaustion of fossil energy resources: global climate change, local pollution, and diffused geopoliti- cal disorders. According to the Energy Technology Perspectives report published by the International Energy Agency in 2012 (ETP-2012)1, global energy demand has nearly doubled since 1980, driving up energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which amount now to the 68% of the anthropogenic total. If current trends will continue unabated, a further 85% rise is expected by 2050, leading the world down the path towards a 6 oC rise in average global temperature during the same period, with potentially devastating results regarding climate change, long-term energy security, and, finally, our survival. The ETP-2012 introduced the so-called 2DS scenario, which identifies tech- nology options and policy pathways ensuring an 80% chance of limiting the global temperature increase to 2 oC by 2050. According to the study, this figure is com- patible with a sustainable future. Achieving the 2DS will require extensive transformation of the energy sys- tem, aiming at cutting energy-related GHG emissions in half by 2050 compared to 2009. The message is clear: different energy systems deliver very different futures. People and governments must choose what future they want, and start building the appropriate energy system now if that future is to be realized. Furthermore, a collective effort is required in every aspect, since no single fuel, technology or sector can deliver a dominant proportion of the necessary emissions reduction. Accordingly, the 2DS reflects a concerted effort to reduce overall consumption and replace fossil fuels with a mix of renewable and nuclear energy sources. It is discussed how substantial opportunity exists to increase en- ergy savings, efficiency and know-how across sectors and technologies, such as those between heat and electricity, or among transport and industry applications. This sustainable energy system is foreseen to be smarter, more decentralised and integrated. In the author’s opinion, energy conversion systems based on the organic Rank- ine thermodynamic cycle (ORC) have the potential to play a major role in this envisaged framework. ORC power plants are one of the most proven solutions for the exploitation of external 2 thermal sources in the power-output range from, say, 1Energy Technology Perspectives−ETP2012. Technical report, International Energy Agency, 2012. 2External with respect to the power system, as opposed to the internal combustion encountered 2PDF Image | New Concepts FOR Organic Rankine Cycle Power Systems
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