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A second strategic issue is what has been termed “first-mover advantage,” which suggests that the facility that starts up first will have a competitive advantage in establishing its network and logistics for wood supply. In addition, the first mover may discourage future investments that would need to access the same timbershed. However, being first does not rule out the possibility that other new facilities that may start later: they may be willing to compete for the same wood due to proximity or the belief that they will be more efficient and thus able to pay more for their fiber. 3.6.6.3 Wood Supplies Available for Massachusetts How much in the border counties would be available for new bioenergy facilities in Massachusetts? This will depend on how the bioenergy industry in the region evolves and depends on the following: • How many new facilities will be built and how large will they be? • Wherewilltheybebuilt? • Whenwilltheybebuilt? In order to provide some general guidelines, such an analysis might proceed as follows. For economic reasons, it would seem most likely that the majority of wood produced would remain in its home market: it might be reasonable to assign that a 50% probability. The remaining 50% could be shipped to Massa- chusetts or shipped “outside” to the facilities in the next ring of border counties. Thus, in this example, the supply of biomass being shipped to Massachusetts from the border region would be 25% of the total available. If the amount of wood available in Massachusetts is X, and the amount available from outside is 1.5X, then Massachusetts could plan on increasing its supplies by 0.375X (or 0.25 * 1.5X). These numbers can be adjusted to develop some insights into what might represent a reasonable upper bound. Suppose we make the assumption that the amount of “new” biomass available in the border counties is actually twice that available in Massachusetts (call this 2X). Furthermore, suppose that Massachusetts is able to purchase half of that wood by virtue of location or the timing of establishing new plants and their supply infrastructure. In this case, Massachusetts could increase its supply by X (or 0.5 * 2X), thus doubling the amount available only within the state. In order to provide some general guidance and indication of the volumes of biomass that could be available from the border counties to supply new bioenergy facilities in Massachusetts, we have assumed that Massachusetts could successfully purchase 50% of the potential incremental production. In our Low-Price Biomass scenario, this would suggest that 110,000−190,000 green tons of forest biomass from border counties could augment the supplies available within Massachusetts. Supplies available from border counties increase to 515,000−665,000 green tons in the High-Price Biomass scenario. Suffice to say, there is no simple answer to the question of how much biomass might be available from the border counties to furnish new bioenergy facilities in Massachusetts. However, it would seem prudent that each new facility (particularly those with large annual wood consumption) conduct its own feasibility study and carefully establish that the supplies it needs are available and not destined for other bioenergy plants. REFERENCES Adams D.M. and Haynes R.W. 1996. The 1993 Timber Assessment Market Model: Structure, Projections and Policy Siumulations. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-368. Beach R.H., Pattanayak S.K., Yang J., Murray B.C., and Abt R.C. 2003. Econometric studies of non-industrial private forest management: a review and synthesis. Forest Policy and Economics 7 (2005) 261-281. Butler, B.J. 2008. Family Forest Owners of the United States. 2006. Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-27. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. www. treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/15758. Butler B.J., Ma Z., Kittredge D.B., and Catanzaro P. 2010. Social Versus Biophysical Availability of Wood in the Northern United States. Accepted for publication in Northern Journal of Applied Forestry. Butler B.J., Miles P., and Hansen M. 2008. National Woodland Owner Survey Table Maker web-application version 1.0. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Amherst, MA. Available only on internet: http://fiatools. fs.fed.us/NWOS/tablemaker.jsp]. Damery D.T., Bellemer C, and Boyce G. 2006. Massachusetts Directory of Sawmills & Dry Kilns – 2006. Fallon M. and Breger D. 2002. The Woody Biomass Supply in Massachusetts: A Literature-Based Estimate. Fight R.D., Hartsough B.R. and Noordijk P. 2006. Users Guide for FRCS: Fuel Reduction Cost Simulator Software. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-668. Forest Futures Visioning Process. 2010. Recommendations of the Technical Steering Committee. Final Report (April 21, 2010). Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation. Harvard Forest. 2010 (May). Wildlands and Woodlands: A Vision for the New England Landscape. Harvard Forest, Harvard University. Petersham, Massachusetts. Innovative Natural Resource Solutions LLC. 2007. Biomass Availability Analysis—Five Counties of Western Massachusetts. Kelty M.J., D’Amato A.W., and Barten P.K. 2008. Silvicultural and Ecological Considerations of Forest Biomass Harvesting in Massachusetts. Department of Natural Resources Conservation, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA. Kittredge, D. 2009 (May). Ownership and use of Massachusetts forests (presentation). Natural Resources Conservation, Umass- Amherst, Harvard Forest. Kittredge D, Foster D, McDonald R. 2009. Massachusetts Timber Harvesting Study. Harvard Forest Data Archive: HF080. Maine Forest Service, Department of Conservation, Forest Policy and Management Division. 2009. 2008 Wood Processor Report, Including Import and Export Information. BIOMASS SUSTAINABILITY AND CARBON POLICY STUDY MANOMET CENTER FOR CONSERVATION SCIENCES 61 NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVEPDF Image | NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVE AT MANOMET
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