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would not need to until demand increases to higher levels.47 On private lands, income from biomass production is not adequate to justify bringing more land into production and biomass volumes will be limited to increasing the harvest intensity on sites already being logged for sawtimber. On public lands, we do not anticipate an increase in the incremental volume of biomass production: planned harvest volumes are not likely to be modified in response to increased biomass demand, and low biomass stumpage prices will not provide the economic incentives to divert timber from current uses to biomass chips. Exhibit 3-17: Summary of Forest Biomass Fuel Supplies for 2010−2025 Low- and High-Price Biomass Scenarios 000 Green Tons per Year or lumber (manufacturing residues, from furniture, pallets, etc.). It appears that most secondary-source material is already being fully utilized in Massachusetts, and this is consistent with recent trends that show significant inflation in their prices. Tertiary sources (often referred to as “urban wood”) include all other wood material and consists mainly of municipal solid waste, construction and demolition debris, and wood from landscaping and tree care. Tertiary material may potentially be a source of substantial volumes of biomass that could provide feedstock for new bioenergy plants and this source is briefly discussed below. 3.5.1 LAND CLEARING AND CONVERSION According to a report by Mass Audubon (2009), forest land clearing and conversion averaged 4,700 acres per year from 1999 to 2005. Forest land clearing and conversion was reported at much higher levels in the previous three decades, but there are numerous incon- sistencies between these data and independent data on building and construction. In addition, the new techniques and methods used in the 2005 survey (involving computer imaging and digi- tization) provide much finer resolution and greater accuracy in measuring land areas cleared. Given that average building permits in 1999−2005 were similar to the average levels of the past 20 years, we have assumed that recent levels of land clearing and conversion represent a reasonable estimate of land clearing for 2010−2025. We have not been able to identify any information that would allow us to track the volume and disposition of the wood removed from these lands. It is probably safe to assume that higher-value sawtimber material is cut and sold, whereas the fate of the low- value material is much harder to predict. Given the lack of information on these land clearing and conver- sion operations, it is not feasible to provide a rigorous quantita- tive projection of biomass supply from these sources. However, we can provide a framework for understanding the important parameters in evaluating this supply—this framework can then be used to demonstrate the biomass potential from land clearing. The potential increase in biomass supply from this source over the next 15 years will depend on: 1) the relative size of the land area cleared (future versus history); and 2) the relative rates of biomass recovery between the two periods. As noted above, we have assumed that land clearing will remain at the recent historical level of 4,700 acres per year. Thus, any increase in biomass produc- tion will require an increase in biomass recovery rates. In order to demonstrate the potential biomass supply from land clearing, two important assumptions are necessary. The first concerns removals of sawtimber and other high-value timber for industrial products: we assume that the economics always justify harvesting this material first and for this example we assume that it accounts for an average of 36% of standing timber volume. The second assumption is the initial stocking levels of lands to be cleared and we assume that an average acre has 100 green tons of wood (this is less than the average shown in Exhibit 3-7 which applies only to stands of mature timber). Thus, the maximum volume of wood that could have been harvested for biomass in each year of BIOMASS SUSTAINABILITY AND CARBON POLICY STUDY Private Lands Public Lands TOTAL Low-Price 150−250 0 150−250 High-Price 650−850 35 685−885 Note: Some estimates are rounded for this table. In our High-Price Biomass scenario, total “new” forest biomass supply increases from 150,000−250,000 green tons per year to about 650,000−850,000 green tons per year. We have postulated that increases in demand from bioenergy plants drive biomass stumpage prices up to $20 per green ton, and prices in energy markets are high enough so that electric power, thermal, and CHP plants can compete for this wood. The large volume increase from private lands occurs primarily because much higher income levels provide incentives to bring more timberland into production. Public lands are also assumed to yield more biomass as relative prices cause timber to be diverted from pulpwood markets to biomass markets. 3.5 BIOMASSSUPPLYFROMNON-FOREST SOURCES IN MASSACHUSETTS Our study has focused on biomass supplies from forest biomass sources, which include the harvesting of whole trees (including thinnings, cull, pulpwood, and low-grade sawtimber) and logging residues. These are sometimes classified as primary sources (see, for example, the Billion-Ton Study, Perlak et al., 2005). Wood from land clearing from development is also considered to be a primary source of wood biomass fuel in the taxonomy of the Billion-Ton Study. The potential volume from this source is evaluated below. There are two other important general sources of non-forest biomass material that should be mentioned. Secondary sources (“mill residues”) include any wood residues generated in the processing of logs (mill residues from sawmills, veneer mills, etc.) 47 There are several reasons (including administrative, logistical, and transport costs) that may lead some facilities to pay higher prices for biomass stumpage in their own timbershed, rather than purchase biomass from other locations where stumpage may be available at lower cost. MANOMET CENTER FOR CONSERVATION SCIENCES 54 NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVEPDF Image | NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVE AT MANOMET
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