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be permitted from public lands if new management guidelines suggested by the Forest Futures Visioning Process are adopted. Thus, once management plans have been established on public lands, undergone public scrutiny, and been officially approved by the responsible agency, it is more difficult to increase harvests in response to potential new demand from bioenergy plants. However, while the volume of wood to be harvested may be pre-determined, the ultimate disposition of the wood is not— planned harvests of pulpwood and residential fuelwood might be diverted to biomass fuel depending on demand conditions and relative prices. 3.3.3 LOW-PRICE BIOMASS SCENARIO The economics of biomass production on private lands in Massa- chusetts suggest that in order to obtain sufficient volumes to furnish bioenergy plants and make logging operations profitable, it is necessary to harvest some combination of cull material, small trees, and low-grade sawtimber: the harvest of whole trees generates the volume that makes it economic to enter the stand for biomass production. Once that process is underway, then tops and limbs from industrial roundwood harvests can also be harvested for biomass. Given the various constraints associated with harvests on public lands, we find that there is not likely to be any increase in biomass production above the levels that are already being produced for the market. (There are no estimates of the volume of biomass chips produced from public lands historically, but it is known that whole-tree biomass chips account for much of the “fuelwood” volume that is reported in tons on the FCPs.) There are several key reasons for our assessment: 1) we are not anticipating an increase in the total volume of wood harvested on public lands; on average, future annual harvest levels are projected to be about the same as during 2001−2009; 2) we are not anticipating any diversion from previous end-use markets (pulpwood, for example) because of the assumed low-price levels for biomass stumpage; 3) restrictions on the removal of tops and limbs mean that logging residues from industrial roundwood harvesting will not be available. Thus, while there is already some production of chips on public lands, we do not project any significant increase in biomass supplies beyond recent levels. 3.3.4 HIGH-PRICE BIOMASS SCENARIO It is likely that biomass supplies from public lands would become significant in response to a large increase in biomass stumpage prices. In this scenario, biomass stumpage prices are assumed to increase to $20 per green ton in response to higher demand from bioenergy plants. As we have noted, if the higher demand originates from electric power plants, higher electricity prices will be needed for wood-fired utilities to remain in operation. For thermal and CHP plants, it is likely they could afford wood at these prices and remain profitable. The main vehicle for achieving the increased biomass produc- tion on public lands will be the diversion of wood from other end uses: at the projected price levels for biomass stumpage, bioenergy plants will be able to outbid their competitors for low-grade sawtimber, pulpwood, and residential fuelwood. We do not expect that forest management plans on public lands would be modified to increase the total volume of material that could be harvested on designated logging sites. In this scenario, incremental biomass production from public lands is estimated as follows: 1) about 4,000 acres will be harvested each year; 2) all of the pulpwood harvested—7 green tons per acre—will now be chipped for biomass; 3) half of the fuelwood harvested—1.5 green tons per acre—will also be chipped for biomass (it is known that much of the reported fuelwood volume is already consumed for biomass fuel so we have assumed half simply to recognize this phenomenon). Thus, “new” biomass supplies from public lands would total 34,000 green tons per year (4,000 acres x 8.5 tons/acre). We have assumed that the removal of tops and limbs will not be acceptable under new silvicultural guidelines for state lands. We should note that if the removal of logging residues were permissible, this would further increase biomass supplies by about 17,000 green tons, thus bringing the total from public lands to approximately 50,000 green tons per year. We should point out that our scenarios reflect relatively light harvests on state lands relative to the volume of timber grown each year. In these scenarios, timber inventories on state lands continue to rise, resulting in rising levels of carbon storage. If the political winds on harvesting shift, these policies could be modified so that much more biomass is harvested from state lands. However, we think that such a scenario would have low probability because of the state’s mandate to balance a wide array of timber and nontimber objectives. 3.4 SUMMARYOFFORESTBIOMASS SUPPLIES IN MASSACHUSETTS The volumes of biomass available from private lands and public lands for our two scenarios are summarized in Exhibit 3-17. Importantly, we should re-emphasize that these data represent the incremental volumes of biomass that we project could be supplied in response to expanded demand from new bioenergy plants, and thus would be available to furnish these facilities. Our Low-Price Biomass scenario was designed to evaluate the potential supplies of forest biomass that might be produced if there was an expansion in demand from bioenergy plants. This analysis was motivated by the assumption that if the increase for demand originates from wood-fired electric power plants, they will not likely be able to pay much more than the current price of $30 per green ton without significant increases in real electricity prices; thus, given the harvesting and transport costs, there is little value left for stumpage. This same volume of wood could be utilized by thermal and CHP plants—they could pay more for stumpage than the $1−$2 per green ton that we have assumed, but BIOMASS SUSTAINABILITY AND CARBON POLICY STUDY MANOMET CENTER FOR CONSERVATION SCIENCES 53 NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVEPDF Image | NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVE AT MANOMET
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