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a broad overview of the volume of wood in Massachusetts forests that might be available at such low prices. Approximately 65% of the standing trees on Massachusetts timber- land are 1"−5" DBH; however, in spite of their large numbers, these sapling-size trees represent only 5% of the timber volume on a tonnage basis (FIA Statistics for 2008). It would be cost prohibitive to harvest trees in this size class based on our analysis. In order to be competitive in current markets, biomass producers would need to harvest trees with low stumpage value that are greater than 5" DBH. As discussed earlier, sawtimber harvests are crucial in opening timber stands to biomass production. In Massachusetts, sawtimber harvests will typically take place in stands that are 60-to-100 years old, and FIA data for 2008 indicate that these stands account for 80% of total growing stock volume. Thus, these age classes are by far the most important in identifying the availability of low-cost wood. Exhibit 3-7 presents the total volume and volume per acre for timber stands classified in the 61−100 year age class in Massa- chusetts.29 The key groups that are potential sources of biomass potential are: 1) rough cull trees, with 8% of the average stand volume; 2) grade 4 & 5 trees, with 16% of the volume; and 3) pulpwood trees,30 with 21% of the volume. As reported in this table, the combination of these three groups totals 59 green tons per acre. Exhibit 3-7: Timber Volume by Tree Grade, Age Classes 61−100 Years in Massachusetts (All Timberland) 000 Acres and Million Green Tons, 2008 These data provide only a starting point and need several adjust- ments before they can serve as a useful upper bound for potential biomass supply. About 30% of grade 4 & 5 trees are greater than 25" DBH; it is not practical to harvest these trees with standard equipment. On the opposite end of the spectrum, about 20% of the pulpwood trees are less than 7" DBH and we exclude half of these (those that may be in the 5"−6" range) because of their higher harvesting costs. Finally, as discussed earlier, some poletimber-size trees are already being harvested for pulpwood/fuelwood end uses; these total about 10 green tons per acre (when adjusted to a comparable basis with the inclusion of tops and limbs). With these adjustments, the availability of grade 4 & 5 trees is reduced from 21 to 15 green tons per acre; pulpwood is reduced from 27 to 12 tons per acre; and rough cull remains at 11 tons per acre; hence, the revised total of available biomass is 37 green tons per acre. At the risk of appearing overly precise, we should recognize that this timber will continue to grow: if we assume the volume increases by an average net annual growth rate of 2% per year for 71⁄2 years to reflect the average availability in 2010−2025, timber availability rises to 43 green tons per acre.31 This review characterizes the potential availability of biomass in broad terms of value and economic accessibility, but there is still a good deal of uncertainty in defining what share of this volume would be available at very low stumpage prices. At this level of aggregation, there is no straightforward way to address this, but it would be reasonable to assume that not more than half of low-grade sawtimber and poletimber could be purchased and harvested at low stumpage prices. This would reduce available supply to the range of 20−25 green tons per acre. On the basis of the information and assumptions presented above, we think that 15 green tons per acre is a good “ballpark” estimate of incremental whole-tree biomass potential—we also consider 20 green tons per acre as a potential upper bound. 3.2.3.3 Landowner Willingness to Harvest We have identified a significant volume of low-value wood in Massachusetts that could be harvested at low cost, at least with whole-tree harvesting systems. The question that remains is: if the demand for forest biomass from private timberlands in Massachusetts increases (from bioenergy plants established in Massachusetts, nearby states, or overseas), what is the likelihood that we would see increased biomass harvests in conjunction with sawtimber operations? Would landowners be receptive to these changes? In many cases, there could be strong economic incentives, even though they would not be the result of direct, immediate income in the Low-Price Biomass scenario. While there is a tendency to use landowner surveys to highlight the lack of interest in timber production in Massachusetts, there is a flip side to this viewpoint. Every year, an average of 22,300 acres of private timberland in Massachusetts is harvested, 31 Increasing the available volume for growth has the same effect as the inventory variable in standard economic models of timber supply. BIOMASS SUSTAINABILITY AND CARBON POLICY STUDY Quantities Share Acres (000’s) 2,120 GT / Acre 129 36 32 21 27 11 2 Total Volume (millions) Grades 1 & 2 Grade 3 Grades 4 & 5 Pulpwood Rough Cull Rotten Cull 273.2 100% 76.4 28% 67.9 25% 44.7 16% 57.8 21% 23.0 8% 3.5 1% Note: FIA data; include all live volume (merchantable volume, tops, limbs, and stumps) in trees ≥ 5 inches DBH. 29 These volumes represent total tree biomass, not just bole volumes. Since we are not interested in total volumes for individual ownerships, we have combined the data for private and public lands to obtain more accurate estimates of grade shares and per-acre volumes. 30 Pulpwood is defined as 5"−9" DBH for softwood trees, and 5"−11" DBH for hardwoods. MANOMET CENTER FOR CONSERVATION SCIENCES 42 NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVEPDF Image | NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVE AT MANOMET
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