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CHAPTER 3 FOREST BIOMASS SUPPLY 3.1 INTRODUCTION AND MAJOR FINDINGS Massachusetts has attracted the attention of bioenergy proponents and investors, in part due to a substantial rise in timber inven- tories over the last several decades. Recent studies on the avail- ability of biomass to support new bioenergy plants have focused on incremental forest growth—implicitly treating inventory accumulation as potential supply—and confirmed expectations that inventories will continue to rise significantly. These studies thus concluded that available biomass is more than adequate to furnish several large-scale electric power plants without reducing timber inventories below current levels. At this juncture, state policymakers require a better understanding of biomass supply, looking at factors beyond forest growth. Poli- cymakers need to know whether the objectives of different energy policies are consistent with available wood supply, and how forest biomass harvests might respond to different economic realities that may be driven policy choices. With this perspective, we have crafted this analysis of forest biomass supplies in 2010−2025 around two central questions: • How much forest biomass would be supplied at current biomass stumpage prices if there is an increase in demand from bioenergy plants? • How much would forest biomass supplies increase if bioenergy plants pay higher prices for wood? Another goal of this supply analysis is to better understand the implications of potential biomass harvest levels for forest health and forest harvesting guidelines. 3.1.1 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR FOREST BIOMASS SUPPLY ANALYSIS Key Study Features Our approach focuses on economic issues and landowner behavior and has been developed with an eye toward the availability and quality of relevant data. Unlike previous forest-growth-based studies,1 this study of forest biomass supply in Massachusetts has several features that are different: 1) it is explicitly linked to energy prices; 2) it incorporates data on biomass harvesting and 1 Recent studies using the forest-growth approach to assess biomass availability in Massachusetts are reviewed in Appendix 3-A. While these studies provide useful information on how much wood could be harvested on an ongoing basis without reducing inventories below current levels, they do not address the complex economic and social factors that will determine how much of this biomass would actually be available to furnish new biomass facilities. We have developed estimates of biomass availability using a forest-growth approach in Section 3.2.5 so that they may be compared with the results of the approach that we have developed. production costs; 3) it provides a detailed analysis of historical harvesting patterns on private lands, thus recognizing landowner willingness to harvest along with harvest intensity; 4) it considers the effect of stumpage prices and per-acre income on landowner behavior; 5) it is closely linked to available timber inventory in terms of accessible areas, mature volumes on private lands, and stocks of low-value trees; 6) it treats public lands separately and utilizes information on historical harvest levels, new Forest Resource Management Plans, and the Forest Futures Visioning Process; and 7) it incorporates sustainability criteria that have been developed and presented in Chapter 4. We define forest biomass as wood supplied from forest management activities on private lands and public lands. These two ownership categories are considered separately in our analysis because they differ in several important ways: 1) the factors that determine the decision to harvest; 2) forest management objectives on private and public lands, and thus silvicultural prescriptions and harvesting techniques; and 3) harvest intensity and timber yields. In terms of area harvested in Massachusetts each year, private lands dominate with an average of about 22,000 acres harvested annually in 2000−2009.2 In contrast, only about 4,000 acres of public land were harvested annually in the same time period. Note that we do not include land clearing as a source of forest biomass, because it is not a forest management activity and there are issues related to definitions of renewability. Nevertheless, it is the source of a substantial volume of wood (the average area of land cleared for development in 1999−2005 was estimated to be almost 5,000 acres per year) and so we have provided a separate section on potential biomass volumes from this source. Incremental Biomass Production The purpose of this supply study is to evaluate how much forest biomass would be available to furnish the potential expansion of bioenergy capacity and production in Massachusetts. For this reason, our analysis and projections are focused on incremental biomass production, not total production. The volume of biomass chips that has been produced from forest sources historically is considered to be “utilized” and, since this wood is already accounted for, it is not available to meet the demand from new bioenergy plants. We sometimes refer to this incremental produc- tion as “new” biomass. Two Biomass Price Scenarios Linked to Energy Prices We have developed two biomass price scenarios—linked to energy prices—that are intended to provide DOER with guidance as to how much wood may be available to furnish new bioenergy plants. These scenarios recognize the importance of stumpage prices and income in influencing landowner behavior, and the important relationship between delivered biomass prices and harvesting systems/logging costs. This section discusses these scenarios with respect to electricity prices; thermal and CHP 2 The data and information provided in this section are summarized from the main body of this chapter. Sources and references are contained in the relevant sections. BIOMASS SUSTAINABILITY AND CARBON POLICY STUDY MANOMET CENTER FOR CONSERVATION SCIENCES 31 NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVEPDF Image | NATURAL CAPITAL INITIATIVE AT MANOMET
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