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possibility that capital costs might decline by between 10% and 20% by 2017, depending on the components, although from an LCOE perspective, a better solution would be to have overall installed costs that are around the same as today, and instead use the cost reductions to increase the thermal energy storage and solar field size to increase the capacity factor from 48% to 65% (Kolb, 2011). Looking slightly further ahead to 2020 and assuming higher cost reductions (from one‐fifth to one‐third, depending on the components) and the switch to super‐critical steam cycles, capital costs could be reduced by 24% and the capacity factor raised to 72% (Kolb, 2011). By 2020, it is assumed that the capital cost range for a parabolic trough plant with six hours energy storage could drop by around 20% to between USD 4 200 and USD 5 500/kW, with capacity factors of around 40% to 45%. Solar tower plants with 6 to 7.5 hours of storage could see their capital costs fall to between USD 4 700 and USD 6 000/kW for capacity factors of 45% to 50%. Solar tower plants with 12 to 15 hours of storage could see their capital costs fall to between USD 6 000 and USD 7 000/kW for capacity factors of 65% to 80%. O&M costs are assumed to fall to USD 0.02/kWh by 2020. The decline in wind turbine prices from their peak in 2008/2009 has been around a quarter, with preliminary data for 2012 projects in the United States suggesting quotes between USD 900 and USD 1 270/kW. However, these are still some 50% to 100% higher than average wind turbine prices in China. Given continued overcapacity at wind turbine manufacturers, prices are likely to continue to fall. The critical issue is to what extent wind turbine prices in high‐cost markets might converge with Chinese and Indian wind turbine prices. Wind turbines are not necessarily interchangeable commodities, unlike solar PV modules29, given their design characteristics, quality and their manufacturer’s warranty terms and reliability guarantees vary. The extent to which wind turbine prices can converge may be limited by these factors and the high local content component of wind turbines (e.g. cement, steel, labour, etc.). By 2020 installed costs for wind farms in the United States could fall to between USD 1 350 and USD 1 450/kW from their current levels of around USD 1 750/kW in 2012, 29 Despite the convergence of manufacturing quality among most leading manufacturers it still remains to be seen if solar PV modules are truly interchangeable commodities globally. assuming wind turbine prices stabilise at around USD 800/kW. Capital costs in Europe are likely to follow similar trends, with values for 2020 of between USD 1 400 and USD 1 600/kW for the major markets. Average capacity factors for new wind farms will continue to rise, as the average size and hub‐height of turbines grows. However, this effect is likely to slow. A major question, similar to the emergence of the importance of BoS costs for PV, is how will O&M costs respond to lower installed costs and higher capacity factors. O&M costs in the United States are around USD 0.01/kWh, but can be two to three times higher in other markets. If these costs cannot be brought down, they will account for an increasing share of the LCOE of wind and act as a break on cost reduction. Further analysis and data are needed to try to identify policy recommendations to drive down O&M costs to best practice levels. Figure 10.1 presents the cost ranges for wind, solar PV, CSP and biomass today as well as projections for 2020 based on the assumptions already presented. For wind, the LCOE range does not shift significantly, but this masks the significant cost reductions that are occurring in OECD countries and will continue until 2020. Depending on where new installed capacity is built, this will significantly lower the weighted average LCOE. The typical LCOE range for solar PV will decline from between USD 0.12 and USD 0.36/kWh in 2012 to between USD 0.09 and USD 0.30/kWh in 2020. Grid parity for residential applications will increasingly be the norm in competitive PV markets and the best utility‐scale projects will be approaching or have surpassed wholesale grid‐parity in some regions where fossil‐fired electricity generation is expensive. The reduction in LCOE for CSP will depend to a large extent on improvements in the current investment climate and longer‐term commitments to policy support measures that can underpin deployment and learning. If deployment can be accelerated, costs will come down, with solar towers showing the greatest potential for LCOE reduction. By 2020 solar towers could be producing electricity for between USD 0.12 and USD 0.16/kWh on average. Biomass technologies will not see the lower range for their LCOE shift significantly by 2020, given that today’s cheapest options rely on very cheap or even free feedstocks. However, for less mature technologies such as gasification, capital cost reductions will drive down the upper end of the range. 78 Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2012: An OverviewPDF Image | International Renewable Energy Agency
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