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10. COST REDUCTIONS TO 2020 The recent declines, and in the case of solar PV, dramatic declines in the LCOE of renewables reflects the increasing maturity of non‐hydro technologies. The striking improvement in the competitiveness of renewables is changing the power generation landscape to one where renewables are fast becoming the economic choice not only for off‐grid and mini‐grids, but also are increasingly competitive in supplying electricity to the grid. However, for a transition to a truly sustainable energy sector to be achieved, this improvement needs to be expanded from a situation where the best renewable resources and most competitive projects are cheaper than incumbent technologies, to one where it is the norm for renewables to be the least‐cost solution for almost all new electricity generation capacity required worldwide to meet either demand growth or plant retirements. To reach this point, where renewables become the default economic option for new capacity, renewable power generation costs will have to continue to decline and performance improve.28 However, even as this occurs, further policy measures will be required to overcome those market barriers, unrelated to price, which hinder the accelerated deployment of renewable power generation technologies. It is assumed that there will be no decline in hydropower costs by 2020, and that any changes in costs are due to underlying commodity price variations and general civil engineering costs. Most biomass combustion technologies are mature, although the projected growth in the market will allow modest capital cost reductions of between 10% and 15% to be possible by 2020 for the higher‐cost markets for stoker, bubbling fluidised bed, and circulating fluidised boiler technologies. The cost reduction potential for gasification technologies, excluding anaerobic digestion, is higher and, if deployment accelerates, capital cost reductions of 10% to 20% might be possible by 2020. 28 A future with more rapid price increases for fossil fuels than is anticipated today would also help accelerate the competitiveness of renewable power generation. The technologies with the largest cost reduction potential are CSP, solar PV and wind. Hydropower and most biomass combustion technologies are mature and their cost reduction potentials are not as large. Solar PV module prices have declined so rapidly in recent years that prices are now significantly below the learning curve. Price reductions have therefore, to some extent, been brought forward and we are likely to see slower price reductions in the period to 2020 than in the past five years. By 2020, Chinese c‐Si modules could be retailing for between USD 0.4 and USD 0.5/W with full recovery of capital costs. However, given the overcapacity in production, projections of future prices are extremely uncertain due to the impact of competitive pressures. What is clear is that now that PV module prices have fallen so much that there is likely to be a slowing in their price reduction, BoS costs are becoming the crucial determinant of the LCOE of solar PV. This can easily be seen by comparing one of the most competitive markets, Germany, with the United States. The gulf in the difference in BoS costs has had a huge impact on the LCOE of solar PV. Further analysis to better understand the reasons behind these differences and how to eliminate them will largely determine the rate of cost reductions in many markets. Convergence, or not, of BoS costs to the most competitive levels will therefore determine as much as 80% of the cost reduction potential for solar PV, outside of the most competitive markets, to 2020. This will be a structural shift in the PV market and one that will require significant investment in data collection and analysis in order to identify policy measures to accelerate convergence in BoS costs. For CSP plants, the overall capital cost reductions for parabolic trough plants by 2020 are estimated to be between 17% and 40% (Hinkley, 2011; and Kutscher, 2010). For solar towers the cost reduction potential could be as high as 28% on a like‐for‐like plant basis (Hinkley, 2011). Alternative analysis suggests that the evolution of costs and performance is a little more complex, with the Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2012: An Overview 77PDF Image | International Renewable Energy Agency
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