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2.3 THE DECLINING COSTS OF RENEWABLES: IMPLICATIONS A general hierarchy exists for renewable power generation in terms of costs, but also in terms of available resources. Depending on local resources, biomass, geothermal and hydropower can all produce electricity at very competitive costs. Onshore wind is typically the next most expensive, while solar PV and CSP are more costly. However, this cost order typically follows an inverse relationship to resource availability. The availability of low‐cost resources for hydropower, geothermal and biomass are all constrained to a greater or lesser extent, while long lead times for the first two mean that capacity additions cannot be ramped up or down rapidly. These factors, and the much larger wind and solar resources, have in part helped spur support for solar and PV to provide a larger share of power generation from renewables. As a result, as the deployment of wind and solar increases, we are seeing a convergence in the LCOEs for all renewable technologies. Some regions have limited unexploited hydropower capacity and lead times are long for these projects, limiting the increase in the rate of growth in installed capacity from what was seen in 2011 that can be achieved. The overall contribution to electricity generation will remain significant and hydropower projects with storage reservoirs will be increasingly important to the least‐cost integration of high levels of variable renewables. Similarly, the most competitive biomass power generation options rely on agricultural or forestry residues, where the value of the core product (food, feedstocks, or forestry products) means low‐cost feedstocks for combustion are commonly produced or collected at a central location, minimising costs but also availability. Dedicated energy crops are significantly more expensive and care must be taken to ensure they are sustainably produced. Good geothermal resources are similarly not widely available and are confined to specific geographic areas.18 18 The exception is enhanced geothermal projects where wells are drilled to significant depths before water is injected into the hot subsurface rock strata. However, this technology has not yet been deployed extensively commercially and costs are unclear. Conversely, wind and solar resources are much larger and are distributed, albeit unevenly, around the world. This, together with targeted policy support, has seen the level of wind and solar PV capacity grow much more rapidly than hydropower, biomass and geothermal. Since most of this recently added new renewable capacity has been variable in nature it has required an adjustment in how network operators manage electricity systems. However, the relatively modest levels of wind and solar penetration to date in most markets mean that their variable nature itself has not typically increased system operation costs. With the increasing competitiveness and higher penetration of renewables, new challenges are emerging for policy‐makers, as decisions taken today will shape the electricity system for decades into the future. The lock‐ in of infrastructure that comes with current investment in long‐lived renewable and conventional energy assets means that sooner, rather than later, policy makers will need to move away from technology‐specific support packages, to ones designed to minimise overall electricity system costs with higher levels of variable renewables, given that this is the trend in new capacity additions. Renewable energy technologies need to work more closely together to unlock synergies and ensure there is sufficient flexibility in the system to integrate high levels of variable renewables at least cost. Since a static analysis of costs may lead to spurious conclusions about the best, and most appropriate, mix of renewable technologies, a dynamic system analysis will increasingly be required to identify the combination of renewable technologies and supporting infrastructure that will yield the lowest system costs over time. This analysis will be essential in order to inform the policy development that will incentivise the least‐cost solution from a systems perspective. 24 Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2012: An OverviewPDF Image | International Renewable Energy Agency
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