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a cost of capital of 10%.15 However, at the best sites in North America projects can deliver electricity for as little as USD 0.04 to USD 0.05/kWh, making them competitive with, or cheaper than, gas‐fired generation – even in this so‐called “golden age of gas”. The LCOE of wind, for the same resource quality, is likely to fall in the near future, since after increasing for a number of years due to commodity price increases and demand outstripping supply, wind turbine prices have recently started to fall again – a trend that is likely to continue as low‐cost 15 All LCOE calculations in this report assume a 10% cost of capital to allow for direct comparisons of the LCOE, unless explicitly mentioned that another value has been used. manufacturers from emerging economies increasingly enter the global market. Solar PV costs are declining rapidly due to high learning rates for PV modules and the very rapid deployment currently being experienced. If these trends continue, grid parity with residential electricity tariffs will soon be the norm, rather than the exception, around the world. The weighted average LCOE of grid‐connected solar PV varies from as little as USD 0.15/kWh to a high of around USD 0.31/kWh. Cost reductions will continue as PV module costs decline. However, in many markets, even larger cost reductions could be possible if installed costs were to decline to the levels seen in the most competitive markets, such as Germany. Box 2.1 THE IRENA RENEWABLE COST DATABASE The IRENA Renewable Cost Database is an ongoing effort to collect cost and performance data of real world renewable projects. IRENA has initially collected data for the power generation sector, but this will be expanded to cover transport and stationary applications. Data are collected from a variety of sources such as business journals, industry associations, consultancies, governments, auctions and tenders. IRENA is also engaging with banks and other financial institutions with a view to include data from the projects they fund. IRENA will officially launch the IRENA Renewable Costing Alliance in 2013. This alliance will bring together governments, financial institutions, utilities, project developers, companies, industry associations and research institutions sharing the same goals as IRENA in order to increase the availability of up‐to‐date and accurate real world project costs and thus facilitate more efficient renewable policy development. The database contains fields for data on: • Project name, location, region/sub‐region/country. • Project type and sub‐type (i.e. hydro/run‐of‐river). • Total capital costs and their breakdown. • Capacity factors. • Efficiency and fuel costs (where applicable). • Operations and maintenance costs (labour, utilities, insurance, leases, etc.). • Economic life of the project. • Debt/equity ratio and the cost of finance from these two sources. • Qualitative assessment of the quality of the data source. As an example of the database’s content, Table 2.1 highlights the number of projects in the database for non‐OECD regions by technology type for some of the technologies analysed in this paper. TABLE 2.1: NUMBER OF PROJECTS FOR NON-OECD REGIONS IN THE IRENA RENEWABLE COST DATABASE BY TECHNOLOGY Africa Middle East Europe & Central Asia Other Asia China India Latin America Small Hydro 24 1 5 151 668 125 97 Large Hydro 8 0 6 91 528 53 83 Small Wind 1 0 2 4 0 190 6 Large Wind 30 2 37 30 1372 416 177 Solar: utility-scale 14 6 0 35 92 24 5 Geothermal 4 0 0 12 0 0 2 16 Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2012: An OverviewPDF Image | International Renewable Energy Agency
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