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2. RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS: AN OVERVIEW A renewable revolution is underway. The rapid deployment of renewable power generation technologies and the corresponding rapid decline in costs are sustaining a virtuous circle. The levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) is declining for wind, solar PV, CSP and some biomass technologies, while hydropower and geothermal produced at good sites is still often the cheapest way to generate electricity. These technologies, excluding hydropower, typically have significant or even very high learning rates.13 Solar PV modules, for instance, have learning rates of between 18% and 22%. The rapid deployment of renewables, working in combination with the high learning rates for some technologies, has produced a virtuous circle that leads to significant cost declines and is helping fuel the renewable revolution. Renewables are therefore becoming increasingly competitive. As an example, c‐Si PV module prices have fallen by over 65% over the last two years and Chinese c‐Si PV modules in September 2012 were selling for just USD 0.75/watt. This is driving reductions in installed costs for residential PV systems, with installed costs in Germany for sub <100 kW rooftop systems falling by 65% between 2006 and 2012 to USD 2.2/W, making solar PV competitive with current residential electricity tariffs. It is important to note that the analysis presented here excludes the impact of government incentives or subsidies, system balancing costs associated with variable renewables and any system‐wide cost‐savings from the merit order effect14. Furthermore, the analysis does not take into account any CO2 pricing, nor the benefits of renewables in reducing other externalities (e.g. reduced local air pollution or contamination of the natural environment). Similarly, the benefits of renewables being insulated from volatile fossil fuel prices have not been quantified. These issues are important and if these were quantified would improve the economics of renewables for power generation. These issues are covered by other programmes of work at IRENA. 2.1 RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS BY TECHNOLOGY Figure 2.1 shows the cost‐effectiveness of today’s renewable technologies. However, the cost ranges are wide and very site‐specific. As a result, there is no single “best” renewable power generation technology. It is also important to note that distributed renewable technologies, such as rooftop solar PV and small wind, can provide new capacity without the need for additional transmission and distribution investment and therefore can not be directly compared with large utility‐scale renewable solutions where transmission and distribution costs of USD 0.05 to USD 0.15/kWh would need to be added. 14 See EWEA, Wind Energy and Electricity Prices, April 2010 for a discussion. 13 Learning rate refers to the fixed percentage reduction in equipment or installed costs for each doubling of cumulative installed capacity. 14 Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2012: An OverviewPDF Image | International Renewable Energy Agency
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