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III. NATIONAL ACTIVITIES UNITED STATES 17.6.2 Undiscovered Geothermal Resources The most significant technical barrier to large scale development of geothermal energy is uncertainty regarding the size of the ultimately economical geothermal resource. This has two aspects, hydrothermal resources and EGS resources, even though in reality there is a gradation from hydrothermal to EGS. 17.6.2.1 Hydrothermal Resources In 1978, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated that already-identified geothermal systems hotter than 150 oC had a potential generating capacity of about 23,000 megawatts electric (MWe) and could produce electricity for 30 years. Additionally, undiscovered geothermal systems were estimated at 72,000 – 127,000 MWe. Major resource areas that have been partially developed include the Basin and Range area of Nevada, Utah and parts of Idaho, Oregon and California; The Geysers in northern California; and the Imperial Valley area in southern California. However, based on exploration by the industry, some experts now believe that the amount of discovered hydrothermal geothermal resources in the United States is sufficient for an additional 2000-3000 MWe under current conditions. GeothermEx, Inc. (‘National Assessment of U.S. Geothermal Resources – A Perspective’, Sanyal et al, GRC Transactions, Vol. 28, August 29-Sept. 1, 2004) has compared the results of assessment of resources in 37 geothermal fields with the resource base estimates for those same fields by the USGS in 1978. GeothermEx’s re-assessment shows that the total resource base in these 37 fields is about 33% of the 1978 estimate. The 1978 assessment was found to be too optimistic primarily because of the use of too high a value for the heat recovery factor. GeothermEx also concludes, pending a new national assessment, that the total resource base in the identified hydrothermal systems in the United States is estimated to be on the order of 10,000 MWe. 17.6.2.2 EGS Resources The American Association of Petroleum Geologist (AAPG) published the 2004 Geothermal Map of North America, which the Southern Methodist University Geothermal Lab produced over the last three years with numerous collaborators. The data used for production of the 2004 Geothermal Map of North America are important for geothermal resource evaluation and location and are particularly useful for EGS assessment. For example, temperatures at 4-6 km depth can be determined using surface temperatures, heat flow and the sediment thermal conductivity (Figure 17.3). (‘The 2004 Geothermal Map of North America – Explanation of Resource and Applications’, Blackwell and Richards; Southern Methodist University, GRC Transactions, Vol. 28, August 29-September 1, 2004). GeothermEx stated that the resource base potentially available from EGS should be considered in any new assessment. (‘National Assessment of U.S. Enhanced Geothermal Resources Base – A Perspective’ by Sanyal and Butler, GeothermEx, Inc.; GRC Transactions, Vol. 28, August 29 – September 1, 2004). Such consideration is necessary, because, in the view of the authors, a new geothermal resource assessment effort is likely to reduce the previous USGS estimation of the nationwide resource base from identified hydrothermal systems by about two-thirds, reducing the total to about 10,000 MWe, while the resource base from EGS could potentially offer an order of magnitude higher level of strategic energy resource base not considered in Circular 790. IEA Geothermal R&T Annual Report 2004.doc 125PDF Image | Geothermal Energy Annual Report 2004
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