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5 2. Energysupplyanddemand: trends and prospects Energy demand is expected to increase considerably in the coming years as the result of population growth and economic development (EIA, 2007). Many people in the world are currently experiencing dramatic shifts in lifestyle as their economies make the transition from a subsistence to an industrial or service base. The largest increases in energy demand will take place in developing countries where the proportion of global energy consumption is expected to increase from 46 to 58 percent between 2004 and 2030 (EIA, 2007). Per capita consumption figures are, however, likely to remain well below those in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Energy consumption in developing countries is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3 percent from 2004 to 2020. In industrialized countries, where national economies are mature and population growth is expected to be relatively low, the demand for energy is projected to grow at the lower rate of 0.9 percent per year, albeit from a much higher starting point. Energy consumption in developing regions is projected to surpass that in industrialized regions by 2010. About half of the increase in global energy demand by 2030 will be for power generation and one- fifth for transport needs – mostly in the form of petroleum-based fuels (EIA, 2007). Much of the increase in energy demand will result from rapid economic growth in Asian economies, especially China and India. Energy demand in the developing countries of Asia is projected to grow at an average rate of 3.7 percent per year, far higher than any other region (Figure 1). Asia will more than double its energy consumption over the next 20 years, and is expected to account for around 65 percent of the total increase in energy demand for all developing countries. Although the energy consumption of developing countries in other regions is expected to grow at a slower pace than in Asia, rates are still expected to exceed the global average (Table 1). While all regions will play a role in future energy supply and demand, the enormous consumption increases projected in Asia make the region of key interest in future energy development. The vast majority of the world’s energy is generated from non-renewable sources, specifically oil, coal and gas (Figure 2). Just over 13 percent of global energy is derived from renewable sources, 10.6 percent of which from combustible renewables and renewable municipal waste. The remainder of renewable energy comes from hydro-, geothermal, solar, wind, and tidal and wave sources. Projections of total global energy consumption show that between 2004 and 2030, fossil fuels will provide the bulk of the increase, with nuclear and other sources providing relatively minor contributions in absolute terms (Figure 3 and Table 1). InPDF Image | Energy supply and demand
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