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17.6 Economics 17.6.1 TrendsinGeothermalInvestment A growth trend in geothermal investment in New Zealand is evident, with significant drilling activity, new resource consent applications and power plant construction. Geothermal drilling in known NZ geothermal resources over the past three years is achieving a >85% success rate in terms of commercially viable production or injection wells. This has reduced the perception that geothermal drilling is a risky venture, and has encouraged new investment. Figure 17.8 (from MED, 2010, with assumptions as given) shows that geothermal power is expected to be the cheapest option for most of the proposed projects up to 8000 GWh/yr of new generation (~1000 MWe of new capacity, more than double the existing installed geothermal capacity). These long-run marginal new generation costs include the costs of interest on capital, operations and maintenance, and anticipated make-up drilling. Figure 17.8 2010 long-run marginal cost curve (NZ$/MWh) for identified future NZ generation projects versus cumulative GWh in cost order (Electricity LRMC model 2010.xls, at www.MED.govt.nz). Assumes 8% discount rate, 0.8 US$/NZ$ and NZ$ 25/tonne CO2 charge. Geothermal predominates up to 8,000 GWh (~1 GW new base-load capacity). 17.6.2 Turbine,Project,WellDrillingandO&MCosts For resources in the temperature range of 275-300 °C and a power plant size of about 50 MWe, the total capital costs are expected to range between about NZ$ 3.7 M and NZ$ 5 M/MWe (Barnett and Quinlivan, 2009, inflated by 10% from 2007 $). The long-run marginal cost is expected to range between NZ$ 60 and NZ$ 75/MWh (for the next 1000 MWe, MED, 2010). For lower enthalpy resources and smaller power plants, the costs will be greater; for 100-200 MWe sized developments the scale factor reduces capital and operating costs significantly. (Note: 1 NZ$= 0.82 US$, Sept 2011) 194PDF Image | Geothermal Research and Tech IEA
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