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14.7 Economics Japan‘s economy entered a serious deflation recession stage beginning 1991, after a long-lasting growing stage since 1955. Particularly, it has come to be more serious by sliding down to minus growth since the Asian currency crisis in 1997. This has dramatically made governmental tax revenues shrink and the government has withdrawn a variety of incentives from many fields, including geothermal RD&D. Then, Japan‘s economy recovered gradually since 2002, but the Lehman Brothers Company‘s shock in 2008 again attacked Japan, prolonging its economy recovery. 14.7.1 TrendsinGeothermalInvestment Geothermal power generation is economically marginal in Japan, and therefore, investment to geothermal power developments is risky in the current situation where governmental incentives are not fully available. The investment in geothermal power development in the private sector is currently inactive except for overseas investment by trading companies and those of product improvement investment by turbine and generator makers. 14.7.2 Turbine,Project,WellDrillingandO&MCosts Reliable data for most of these items are not available, partly due to their confidential nature and partly due to too few references in the current inactive geothermal market. One of the reference data for the drilling cost is available from the cost estimation of conventional geothermal power developments in Japan (NEDO, 2002), where the drilling cost for a large-diameter production or reinjection well is assumed to be 230,000 Yen/m. This is equivalent to US$ 2,949/m and US$ 5.9 million for drilling a 2,000 m depth well. This is still more expensive than the world standard, but the recent drilling cost may have been further improved. 14.7.3 TrendsintheCostofEnergy Cost of energy is seldom published even by the government because of difficulty in the equal-base comparison under the different levels of political supports. It is too old, but ANRE (2001MS) estimated costs of a variety of energy sources as of 1999 that show 7.3 Yen/kWh (6.8 US cents/kWh) for fire power averaged from oil, coal and LNG, 5.9 Yen/kWh (5.5 US cents/kWh) for nuclear power, 66.0 Yen/kWh (61.7 US cents/kWh) for photovoltaic power and 11.5 Yen/kWh (10.7 US cents/kWh) for wind power. The cost of geothermal power at the nearest year can be referred to NEDO (2002). NEDO (2002) estimated costs of conventional geothermal power developments in 31 target geothermal areas without incentives from the Geothermal Development Promotion Surveys and drilling subsidy. The cost varies from 10.0 to 24.0 Yen/kWh, and most of them range from 10 to 14 Yen/kWh (from 9.3 to 13.1 US cents/kWh). This range indicates a general cost of geothermal power in Japan. However, the traditional cost regime was drastically changed by the recent steep rise in the crude oil price. As Japan is an oil-importing country, the recent steep rise in the crude oil price is changing the energy market regime. Geothermal power generation has been economically marginal in Japan, but, if the crude oil price will further rise, geothermal power generation will soon come to be competitive in cost to the hydrocarbon thermal power generation. 14.7.4 GeothermalSectorEmployment There is no reliable data on geothermal sector employment, but the Geothermal Research Society of Japan has about 550 members that give a reference number of people employed in the geothermal sector in Japan, because a number of non-geothermal employee members of the society may be roughly comparable with that of geothermal employees outside the society. 162PDF Image | Geothermal Research and Tech IEA
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