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34 Chapter 3 Recoverable EGS Resource Estimates 3.2 Resource Base vs. Reserves It will be helpful to review the way reserves are treated by the oil and gas industry before addressing this subject for EGS. In the energy industry, the estimated amount of oil or gas available with current technology at today’s energy prices is often referred to as the reserve. Reserves clearly are much smaller than the resource base; but, in general, reserve estimates will increase as extractive technology improves and/or energy prices increase. For instance, in most deep sedimentary rock, there is some methane dissolved in the water found in the pores of the reservoir rock. This dissolved gas can be considered part of the natural gas resource base. If we calculated all of it contained in subsurface rock, a large amount of energy would be contained in this resource. Today, dissolved methane is usually not included in natural gas reserve estimates, because it is too dilute and/or too expensive to extract. An excellent example is U.S. geopressured resources that contain a substantial amount of methane as part of their resource base (see Section 2.6.3). If technology were to improve so that dissolved methane could more easily be extracted, the methane contained in geothermal fluids, in general, could be included in reserves estimates. Similar analogies can be drawn using methane trapped in gas hydrates found in permafrost and marine sediments, or regarding the uranium dissolved in seawater as part of the uranium resource base. U.S. oil and gas reserves correspond to economically extractable resources as specified by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Staff Accounting Bulletin, Topic 12 (2006). Given that oil and gas prices fluctuate on the commodity market, the competitive price levels are subject to change. When the price of oil was low a few years ago, thousands of small “stripper” wells in the United States were shut in. The oil and gas contained underground, which is connected to these wells, is still regarded as part of the reserves and included in estimates of what would be available but was not economic to produce at the market price at that time. Recoverable thermal energy was estimated, assuming an abandonment temperature 10°C below the average initial rock temperature in the reservoir. Numerical modeling studies by Sanyal and Butler (2005) have indicated that the recoverable fraction of stored thermal energy referenced to a specified reservoir abandonment temperature was about 40%, assuming an idealized, welldefined hydrothermal reservoir with homogeneous properties. To be conservative for EGS systems, the analysis applied the Sanyal and Butler model with lower recovery factors, namely, 20% and 2% to represent an appropriate range of values that might be deliverable in practice. Recovered thermal energy was calculated from the initial amount contained in specified 1 kmthick, horizontal rock slices at initial temperatures given in Chapter 2 and for a specified abandonment temperature that was 10°C below the initial temperature. The temperaturedepth maps (Figure 2.7) were used for estimates of the total stored thermal energy. The recovered thermal energy was then converted to electric energy, using an overall heattopower cycle efficiency as discussed in Chapter 7 for binary and flashsteam cycles. To get a better idea of the potential power supply available in the near future, the EGS resource was divided into two parts: 1) a portion associated with hydrothermal systems at depths shallower than 3 km, and 2) the remaining resource at depths between 3 and 10 km as estimated in Chapter 2. Cost of generated power was calculated for each of these two types of EGS resource, using the GETEM code developed for geothermal power costing for the U.S. DOE Geothermal Technologies Program (see Chapter 9, section 9.10.1 for more details).PDF Image | Recoverable EGS
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