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infrastructure is not about stimulating economic growth in these countries—rather, it’s about sustaining it. Growth markets are outstripping developed economies with respect to GDP growth. A majority of the global middle class2 lives in growth markets, and that proportion is expected to increase significantly in coming years. Demand for reliable, affordable electricity from homes and businesses will only rise. The capital needed to close this infrastructure gap represents a unique investment opportunity. The demand side of the energy story is well documented. However, many growth economies are not merely customers for oil and gas; they also have extensive natural resources of their own. Nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil reserves are in Latin America. Africa holds almost 8 percent of oil reserves, in addition to shale oil and gas deposits. By 2030, 71 percent of global fuel supply is expected to come from markets that are not part of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Energy transportation and storage infrastructure will be critical to extraction and distribution to the end consumer. The reality is that in many of these markets, energy infrastructure must be built, as few existing assets are operational. Many global investors are hesitant to commit their capital to greenfield infrastructure, where development and construc- tion risk is greater, particularly in non-OECD markets. Such thinking views growth economies as a monolith and overlooks the attractive rates of return such investments deliver. Rather than placing a blanket risk premium on all growth markets, I would encourage investors to take a closer look and recognize those countries that have transformed their investment environment in recent years. We have identified a number of key growth markets that have created an outstanding investment environment for energy-infrastructure projects by combining viable project pipelines with a regulatory environment that mitigates risk. Kenya is one such example. The country has an exemplary history of commissioning independent power plants from private investors and paying the agreed-upon tariff through its supply company, Kenya Power, while minimizing off-take risk and providing a strong, bankable credit. Kenya also intends to bring 5,000 megawatts—including 1,600 megawatts of geothermal energy—online in the next 40 months. Investors in geothermal projects can opt to invest after the initial exploration phase or take advantage of new insurance products coming onto the market. Nigeria, another dynamic economy, will face a 13-fold capacity shortfall by 2020. The country needs massive investment to provide new capacity and replace existing diesel plants. The rising cost of diesel generation, combined with attractive feed-in tariffs for renewables, has created a major opportunity for solar-energy projects that generate a good rate of return and undercut existing power sources. A program to privatize ownership of ten newly built gas power plants has attracted interest from more than 100 investors around the world. Nigeria, like Kenya, waives duty on power-generation equipment. With the right approach, investments in Kenya, Nigeria, and other select jurisdictions can deliver excellent risk-adjusted returns. Investing in energy-infrastructure projects is not without complexity. On the contrary, investors need to draw on technical expertise to ensure that projects are sound. As investors we demand bankability, but how we get there differs from 59PDF Image | Energy infrastructure
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