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Trends, Challenges and Opportunities Technologies such as solar water heaters, solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, wind turbines, heat pumps, mini- hydro generators, and biogas digesters all have the potential to make a significant contribution towards securing modern energy services for the poor as well as for nascent industries in developing countries. In areas without direct connection to an electricity grid, decentralised energy solutions provide a way to increase access to basic services such as heating, lighting, refrigeration and communication without incurring high infrastructure costs. The use of renewable energy technologies for such off-grid applications can often be a cost-effective approach to increasing energy access. Furthermore, shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources can contribute to meeting GHG reduction targets. Emissions in 2012 are projected to have been 58 per cent above 1990 levels (Le Quéré et al. 2012). Under business-as-usual conditions, global GHG emissions are predicted to increase to an annual 37 gigatonnes by 2035 (IEA 2012c). The promotion of renewable energy can decisively limit carbon emissions from energy production and use, bearing the potential to save an equivalent of 220–560 gigatonnes of CO2 between 2010 and 2050 (IPCC 2011). The IEA’s most ambitious mitigation scenario, the “450” Scenario, sees the CO2 content of the atmosphere restricted to 450 parts per million (IEA 2011a). This would involve CO2 emissions peaking before 2020 and then falling to 1990 levels by 2035. This projection estimates that 44 per cent of the emissions abatement by 2035 would be realised from energy efficiency measures, 21 per cent from the use of renewable power, four per cent from the adoption of biofuels, nine per cent from the use of nuclear power, and 22 per cent from the use of carbon capture and storage (UNEP 2012a). The IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives 2012 illustrates that already the integrated use of existing technologies would make it possible to reduce dependency on imported fossil fuels or on limited domestic resources, decarbonise electricity, enhance energy efficiency, and reduce emissions in the industry, transport and buildings sectors (IEA 2012a). Furthermore, the reduction in GHG and criteria pollutant emissions (such as nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, and particulate matter) associated with the widespread use of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is anticipated to result in significant societal benefits by mitigating climate change and reducing health impact costs (OICA 2012). Investing in renewable energy technologies also creates new employment opportunities. In 2010, more than 3.5 million people worldwide were estimated to be working, either directly or indirectly, in the renewable energy sector and further growth is expected. Estimates suggest that by 2030, 12 million people could be employed in the biofuels sector, 2.1 million in the wind sector and 6.3 million in the solar PV sector (UNEP 2008a). One of the most significant developments in the renewable energy sector in recent years has been the decline in the cost of various renewable energy technologies. Under these trends, renewable energy prices are increasingly challenging fossil-fuel alternatives. In particular, the cost of generation from solar PV and onshore wind declined 31-35 per cent and 9 per cent respectively between 2011 and 2012. Of the main renewable energy technologies, only offshore wind saw costs increase in 2011 (UNEP 2012a). In many cases, renewable energy production can already be more cost-effective than fossil fuel alternatives. This is especially the case in locations where fossil fuel reserves are not extractable and countries are therefore forced to import energy to fulfil domestic needs. Once sufficient demand for renewable energy allows for economy-of- scale production in developing countries, its price-effectiveness is likely to further increase (UNEP 2012a). Technology is key to both increasing access to energy supplies and also decreasing the world’s carbon footprint. However, while many renewable energy technologies have witnessed recent technological advancements and cost reductions, renewable energy is not the only unconventional form of energy that has come to the forefront in recent years. Hydraulic fracturing, an upstream gas extraction technology also known as ‘gas fracking’, enables operators to unlock vast shale gas resources and congests natural gas markets with cheap and abundant supplies, mainly from the United States. Gas fracking has expanded dramatically and unconventional gas is predicted to account for half of the increase in global gas production until 2035 (IEA 2012c). While contributing to global energy security, gas fracking can carry numerous environmental and health challenges, as highlighted in a recent UNEP report (UNEP 2012b). Even in the renewable energy sector, some technological advancements may have environmental and social impacts. For example, the potential adverse effects from hydropower projects are illustrated in Box 2. 221 Renewable EnergyPDF Image | Renewable Energy
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