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generation alternatives at the domestic level and what makes sense for the region. For exam- ple, El Salvador and Guatemala would benefit more from interconnectivity with Mexico’s en- ergy grid, while Costa Rica and Panama would benefit from connections to Colombia. Dis- agreements therefore arise over where to site new power generators, port infrastructure, or pipelines.16 2. Regulatory asymmetry: Divergence in regula- tory frameworks across Central America and the Caribbean discourages foreign investment in the energy sector. There is also a need for more integrated electricity planning in Central America.17 For example, even though a region- al electricity market (Mercado Eléctrico Re- gional) began to function in Central America in 2013, this has not yet translated into a com- mon regulatory framework for energy invest- ment in the region. Foreign investors would benefit though from the resulting economies of scale. 3. Meager state regulatory capacity: State capaci- ty is especially important if these regions are to implement energy efficiency measures. In other parts of the globe, deployment of ener- gy efficiency technologies has relied on incen- tives from power companies to help end users finance the change to new products. However local energy producers benefit from the high cost of energy, which they pass on to consum- ers. These business owners are often highly influential members of the local political and economic elite, and as such, can discourage governments from taking action. 4. Financial disincentives for change: The subsidies and financial benefits from Petrocaribe dis- courage consideration of alternatives by gov- ernments. The existing framework is the lowest cost alternative currently available compared to market solutions. Shifting towards alterna- tive energy production matrices requires the assumption of financial risks by regional gov- ernments in the form of loans or investments, as well as political risks in leaving Petrocaribe and potentially displeasing Venezuela. Overcoming the obstacles to high energy costs in Central America and the Caribbean and im- plementing a new energy framework will require both short-term and long-term policies. In the short term, the risk is the region’s vulnerability to changes in Petrocaribe’s financial terms and sup- ply reliability. Given declining oil production and the growing economic crisis in Venezuela, this risk cannot be dismissed. Any new solution should fo- cus on assuring energy supply and price stability for Central America and the Caribbean. There are a number of physical and financial hedging strategies that could be used, although some are quite com- plex and may pose a challenge to state capacity.18 The regions have many potential partners among energy producing states, such as Brazil, Colom- bia, Mexico, Trinidad and Tobago, and the United States. Multilateral financial institutions, especial- ly the IDB and World Bank that have long studied this issue, are best positioned to advise on possible financial alternatives. Regional institutions such as SICA and CARICOM may provide a framework for consultation on a new financing mechanism to hedge against volatility in energy prices. Historical models such as the Pact of San José may provide lessons learned for how to combine these elements. Such a multilateral approach would have an added advantage of reducing the vulnerability of the par- ticipants to political pressure from any single ener- gy-exporting state. However, a short-term plan to hedge against price shocks does not solve the long-term problem of de- pendence on a limited range of energy sources, and perpetuates disincentives for the adoption of new technology. Transitioning to a new regional energy production matrix will require that the design of the short-term hedge against energy price insta- bility create incentives for long term investments in a less costly energy production infrastructure. That means that country participation in a short- term hedging mechanism should be linked to long- range planning, financing and implementation of Changing EnErgy DynamiCs in thE WEstErn hEmisphErE Latin amEriCa initiativE, ForEign poLiCy at Brookings 4PDF Image | ElectraTherm Enters Canada’s Natural Gas Compression Market
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