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1. Enforce achievement of a national Renewable Portfolio Standard of 15 percent renewable electricity by 2030. The United States should establish a 15 percent minimum state target for electricity generation and begin enforcing that standard in 2030, with qualified renewable electricity generation from biomass, solar thermal, photovoltaic solar, concentrating solar power, geothermal, wind, fuel cells using renewable fuels, small hydropower, digester gas, landfill gas, ocean wave, ocean thermal, and tidal current. According to interview findings, perspectives varied widely on whether a national RPS should be pursued, when it should begin and end, and what final mix of renewables might be achievable in the United States. One conclusion that emerged, upon consideration of expert interviews and an extensive literature review, is that a national RPS should be designed to serve two purposes: one as an enforceable “back stop” to more aggressive state RPSs and the other as a minimum renewable achievement standard in a carbon tax regime. The average state RPS standards are generally more aggressive than the national RPS we recommend, with renewable targets ranging from 10 to 15 percent as soon as 2015, to 15 to 20 percent by 2020, to 15 to 25 percent by 2025.33 As of March 2009, 28 states had enacted RPS legislation, and five more had set renewable energy goals.34 A specific objective for a national RPS was selected in the context of a national energy strategy, focused on coordinating the development of a sustainable energy future through diversified renewable state energy assets, rather than dictating any specific mix of technologies for renewable electricity generation. When combined with the carbon tax, the nation-wide RPS would prevent the crowding-out of clean, renewable electricity by more immediately cost-effective large-scale nuclear or clean carbon development and demonstration projects during the transition. The national RPS target we recommend is structured 20 to 30 years into the energy technology transition to avoid several undesirable consequences of implementing a national RPS too quickly. First, a near-term RPS goal would force states to implement the most “market-ready” solutions, not necessarily the most feasible or optimal renewable technologies. According to a 2007 EIA report, reaching a 25 percent RPS by 2025 would require 70 percent of all new generating capacity to come from renewables, representing a ten fold increase in current levels of non-hydropower renewables generation.35 Thus, accomplishing aggressive state RPS goals will require considerable investment in renewables, many of which are not yet technologically mature. A 2030 deadline for a national RPS gives states time to assess the strengths and weaknesses of their energy infrastructure and to seek creative renewable solutions through research and development partnerships that conform to these assessments. Second, a longer-term national RPS target reduces overall implementation costs by allowing time for the growth of an adequate domestic manufacturing market for renewables parts. 177PDF Image | Shaping Energy Technology Transition
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