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Chapter 5. The Continuing Role of Hydrocarbons The development of alternative energy technologies and reductions in energy demand will only partially reduce dependence on hydrocarbons. Transforming the energy economy will take time, and demand for energy will continue to increase, ensuring a continuing role for hydrocarbons in the future. To make this practical, however, it will be necessary to develop unconventional hydrocarbon technology and lower the costs of hydrocarbon use. As conventional hydrocarbons are depleted or become more difficult to extract, unconventional hydrocarbons will contribute more to the nation’s future energy portfolio. Carbon capture and sequestration technology must also be developed to mitigate the emissions associated with hydrocarbon use. If these technologies are adequately developed, many of these problems will be ameliorated, enabling continued hydrocarbon use for a much longer period of time. Hydrocarbon Dependent Industries As the production of both renewable and alternative energy technologies expands, some industries will not be able to easily transition from hydrocarbons to more environmentally friendly sources. This includes airlines, shipping companies, and any industry dependent on heavy trucks and diesel powered vehicles, as well as industries with products that use petroleum as an input, such as plastics. Currently, the industrial sector accounts for nearly one-third of total U.S. energy demand. Furthermore, industrial demand for hydrocarbons constitutes a large portion of the estimated growth in oil and natural gas use, both globally and in the United States. By 2030, global industrial demand for natural gas is predicted to increase by 50 percent. Demand for oil from the industrial sector is expected to grow by 5 million barrels per day.1 Until alternative solutions for these industries are developed, a transition away from hydrocarbons in the industrial sector will not occur. Coal will continue to feature prominently because it is the nation’s primary source of base load electricity generation. The United States possesses 255 billion tons of coal and generates more than 50 percent of its electricity through coal power plants, which account for 36 percent of the country’s annual carbon dioxide emissions.2 Furthermore, coal can produce energy at costs ranging from $1 and $2 per million Btu (MBtu) compared to $6 to $12 per MBtu for oil and natural gas.3 Given the abundance of coal deposits and low economic costs associated with coal production, incentives exist to continue to use coal. Without adequate substitutes for base load electricity generation, coal will be required to power the nation’s electric grid. Unconventional Hydrocarbons It is necessary to develop unconventional hydrocarbon technology and lower the costs of hydrocarbon use. As conventional hydrocarbons are depleted or become more difficult to 117PDF Image | Shaping Energy Technology Transition
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