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higher-latitude, cloudier areas (1,000 kWh/m2/year).57 Solar CSP generating costs without incentives average $0.18 per kWh.58 Thus, the most cost-effective solar PV generating is $0.10 to $0.20 more per kWh than average residential, commercial and industrial retail prices for electricity of $0.1147/kWh, $0.1013/kWh, and $0.706/kWh respectively.59 The price of solar CSP generating without incentives, in contrast, is $0.08 to $0.10 above retail costs. Experts believe that CSP generation will achieve commercial viability at $0.10 per kWh. Cost reductions in both PV and CSP solar electricity will require the emergence of domestic plant and installation parts manufacturers, economies-of-scale benefits at larger plants, and efficiency improvements through continued research and development. With long-term incentive guarantees from the government, solar manufacturing and distribution could contribute 62,000 new jobs by 2015 as well as stimulate commerce in trade industries (e.g. electricians, plumbers, roofers, designers, engineers).60 Environmental Impact Solar on- and off-grid PV systems are attractive because of their minimal environmental impact. They are zero-carbon emissions systems requiring very little physical space with limited impact on their surroundings. The significant land area needed to develop large- scale CSP systems has been the top environmental concern among conservationists. The Federal Bureau of Land Management has received 80 proposals to build solar plants in California alone, requests that would involve 700,000 acres of desert land.61 Opponents say that PV capacity is the preferred expansion method because it can be introduced in urban areas, thereby conserving federal desert wilderness.62 Potential Role and Implications A 2002 National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) study suggested that the expansion of 130 square miles of parabolic trough capacity in the western United States could provide enough electricity to replace all other fuels and technologies, including coal, oil and gas, nuclear, and hydropower in 15 U.S. states.63 Today’s PV installations are practical for large, small, on-grid, or off-grid applications, increasing their attractiveness to those residing in places with restricted land area (e.g., cities) or limited sunlight (e.g., eastern and southern United States). Substantial start-up costs of new CSP plants and small residential or commercial PV systems and their energy storage units pose the largest implementation challenge. Lowering operating costs, increasing operating efficiency of PV cells and solar thermal generating technologies, and finding cost-effective energy storage solutions are the industry’s primary goals today. Although cost-effective energy storage is the greatest challenge to CSP deployment, this obstacle will likely be overcome and enable the industry to build intermediate-load capacity in less than 5 years, and base-load capacity in 5 to 15 years with proper deployment support.64 Future prospects for development should increase due to the 8-year extension of the investment tax credit for solar installations for consumers and businesses 38PDF Image | Shaping Energy Technology Transition
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