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reduced economic growth, and slower than expected growth in energy demand.10 Although energy use has recently declined as a result of global economic recession, this is expected to be temporary.11 Long-term forecasts predict that energy demand will be dependent on the level of economic growth but will continue to increase with population growth. Since energy use is closely correlated with population size, projected growth in the U.S. population will be the primary cause of future increases in total demand.12 Supply Analysis The United States is endowed with numerous energy resources, including vast interior coal deposits, offshore and arctic oil fields, natural gas deposits, a large central wind corridor, numerous waterways, and plenty of sunlit land. A breakdown of the overall U.S. energy supply (101.6 quadrillion Btu) can be found in Figure 2.2. Figure 2.3 shows the breakdown of the renewable energy component (6.7 percent, 6.8 quadrillion Btu) of the total energy supply. Despite the diversity of its domestic energy resource supply, the United States is highly dependent on hydrocarbons for energy. Petroleum, natural gas, and coal comprise 85 percent of the national energy supply; nuclear and renewable energy sources make up the remaining 15 percent.13 Used for generating electricity, nuclear energy provides 8 percent of the primary total energy supply and could supply more but has not been expanded in the United States for several economic and political reasons. First, nuclear plants are expensive to build and require significant long term investments. Second, there is significant political opposition to the location of proposed facilities. In contrast to depletable hydrocarbons and nuclear projects, “renewable” sources of energy are inexhaustible and have the potential to reduce the need for hydrocarbons in the future. Renewable sources of energy presently comprise 6.8 percent of the total national energy supply.14 Numerous economic, environmental, and political reasons have prevented the development of additional domestic energy resources, primarily the large amounts of capital necessary to fund new projects.15 Since energy production is a capital-intensive industry, domestic energy production has stagnated and little has been done to expand national energy infrastructure over the past decades. The mixture of energy supply sources is not predicted to change much over the next 20 years. The Energy Information Agency (EIA) predicts that the United States will remain dependent on hydrocarbons well into the future. There is great uncertainty about the future of world petroleum markets, however, and the future use of oil will depend on price. In turn, the future price of oil will depend on geopolitical factors and the future availability of the resource. Higher prices are projected to reduce the demand for oil and lead to the use of other liquid fuels.16 Liquefied coal and natural gas are predicted to supplement the energy that would otherwise come from oil. The use of coal and natural gas has expanded to meet the nation’s ever-increasing demand for electricity. Given the abundance of U.S. coal deposits, it will likely remain a significant contributor to the domestic energy supply for some time. By 2030, coal is still 8PDF Image | Shaping Energy Technology Transition
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