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2009. Since then, production has slowly recovered. Still, Latin America’s demand for oil is expected to surpass production by 2025. In order to meet that growing demand and retain export potential, the region is going to need significant investment in exploration. However, rent-seeking policies have resulted in expropriation, nationalization, and changes in contractual terms, negatively affecting investment. In addition to supply side considerations, it is important to note the role played by energy policies, as well as the benefits of regional energy integration. A regional electricity market would reduce generation costs at the country level since consumers benefit from access to other countries’ larger and low-cost generation facilities. Economies of scale could also be achieved, with larger projects based on expanded regional (rather than national) electricity demand. Meanwhile, instead of allocating capital to develop smaller and costly generation units, a regional electricity market would free that capital for other purposes. Regional energy trade also reduces the need for costly domestic reserve requirements and enhances supply security by maximizing potential complementarities from different sources (occurrence of different sources at different periods of the year reducing the need for backup generation). Finally, trade increases market competition by diversifying sources of supply. Trade in Latin America’s electricity sector has developed gradually with a focus on connecting supply nodes to meet seasonal demand. Earlier collaborations, such as between Paraguay and Brazil, were based on government-to-government agreements establishing prices and volumes. Currently there are three key regional trade zones: i) Brazil-Southern Cone; ii) the Andean Zone (Colombia-Ecuador and Venezuela); and iii) Mexico-Central America. Electricity trade in the region increased in the 1980s but, since 2004, it has declined as countries opt to secure their needs internally. Figure 33: Latin America's Electricity Trade 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 Imports Exports Source: OLADE SIEE database 37 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 GWhPDF Image | Infrastructure and Environment Department
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