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It assumed average GDP growth of 3 percent for all countries until 2030, with Latin America’s demand for electricity expected to grow at a higher 3.7 percent per year. By 2030, consumption was forecasted to be around 2500 TWh, nearly double current consumption. The fastest growing markets were expected to be Central America and Brazil. The growth in demand for electricity in the Andean and Southern Cone countries was expected to decline, at the same time Mexico could see the highest growth rate jump, to 3.4 percent from 1.8 percent in the current decade. Figure 31: Electricity in Latin America’s Generation Mix 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% 2008 2030 coal fuel oil natural gas hydro nuclear oil products others 2008 4.6% 8.4% 22.0% 58.6% 2.8% 2.3% 1.3% 2030 7.9% 3.3% 29.4% 50.0% 4.2% 1.2% 4.1% Source: Based on Ariel Yepes et al., Meeting the Balance of Electricity Supply and Demand in Latin America and the Caribbean. World Bank 2010 Hydroelectricity will continue to be the most important source of electricity generation, although its contribution to the electricity mix will continue to decline. Latin America’s dependency on fossil fuels for electricity generation, meanwhile, will increase. 35PDF Image | Infrastructure and Environment Department
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