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Recent efforts by PDVSA and its partners suggest a modest improvement in oil production. However, unless the country addresses its mounting macroeconomic imbalances and reverses its anti-investment policies, the full potential of its vast oil reserves is not likely to be achieved. Other sources of oil include Brazil’s offshore deep-water reserves and, pending successful exploration outcomes, those of Guyana and Suriname. Oil production could also be expanded in Mexico with reforms in the petroleum sector. Like oil, Latin America’s natural gas production will depend not only on geology but also political and regulatory developments. Argentina and Mexico both have vast non-conventional gas reserves. However, their development comes with unattractive economic terms, regulatory restrictions, and political risk. Biofuel developments Latin America is in an advantageous position to develop a biofuel industry thanks to good soil, suitable climate, available land, and low labor costs.19 Balances of payments are expected to improve through the replacement of costly oil imports with local biofuels; ethanol already is used as substitute for up to 20 percent of Brazil’s oil imports. A biofuels industry also opens the door to lucrative exports to markets in North America, Europe, and Asia, diversifying the export base of producer countries. The biofuel industry brings employment to rural areas. Finally, use of biofuels is believed to contribute to the reduction of CO2 emissions (although there is not yet consensus on this assertion). It is, therefore, not surprising that biofuel production has grown rapidly in Latin America, with Brazil leading the expansion. In 2010, the world’s ethanol production was close to 1.5 million b/d, with Latin America contributing around 31 percent of that. Brazil accounted for 96 percent of the region’s ethanol output. Colombia and Paraguay have rapidly growing ethanol industries; Mexico, Central America, and other South American countries are at differing stages of development. Biodiesel output has grown fast in Argentina and Brazil with soy as the main input, while Colombia uses oil from African palm trees. Most countries have legislation that mandates blending of biofuels as a mechanism to promote the development of a domestic market. IEA forecasts that Latin America’s production of ethanol will increase to 640,000 b/d, or 34 percent of the world’s total, by 2016. Biodiesel output is expected to reach 478,000 b/d with Latin America boosting its output to 117,000 b/d, from 85,000 b/d—although its global share will not increase as output from Asia is forecasted to expand further. 19 Rainer Janssen and Dominik Damian Rutz, “Sustainability of biofuels in Latin America: Risks and opportunities,” Energy Policy Journal, 39:10, 5717-5725, January 2011. 27PDF Image | Infrastructure and Environment Department
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