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short term, seeking to delay a potential balance-of-payments crisis. Since nationalization, the government has been inviting other oil companies to jointly develop Argentina’s vast gas resource potential. However, the government is gambling with the country’s energy future. In fact, in May 2012 Repsol cancelled its supply contract of LNG to Argentina. According to press reports, new suppliers could be found but at very high price of around US$17 mcf. If YPF fails to reverse the production decline, Argentina will face a growing energy trade deficit or severely curtail demand, depending on how Argentina’s NOC evolves. Will YPF be a political NOC, following the steps of PDVSA? Or could it emulate the successes of Petrobras and Ecopetrol? The results of other nationalizations in Argentina, such as the airline industry, do not instill confidence about the government’s ability to foster a successful entrepreneurial NOC. Figure 21: Foreign Reserves (excluding gold) 52000 50000 48000 46000 44000 42000 40000 2010 2011 2012 Source: Institute of International Finances (IIF) iii) The development of new geopolitical alliances One of the key features of Latin America’s recent economic ascendency is the perceived decline of the United States as the ultimate power broker in the region. A number of publications have examined that recently.14 As the United States retreated, new players, notably China, became increasingly relevant. 14 For example see Hal Weitzman, Latin Lessons: How South America Stopped Listening to the United States and Started Prospering (Chicago: John Wiley & Sons, 2012). 24 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb US$ millionPDF Image | Infrastructure and Environment Department
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