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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY Using our in-house databases, we then calculated the average heat and sulfur content of the coal and in Exhibit 47 we see that, in aggregate, the West has about 41,590 million tons of eco- nomically recoverable underground reserves and 81,889 million tons of surface reserves. On average we estimate that this coal has a heat content of 9,034 Btu/lb and a sulfur content of 1.3 lb/mmBtu. In the section, “Resource Options for the Future,” we show that this amounts to 215 years of electric energy if all of western energy were derived from coal generation at 2001 demand levels. With at least two centuries of coal reserves left, coal is the largest fossil energy source in the West There are three fundamental ways of generating electricity from coal: pulverized coal (PC) com- bustion, fluidized bed combustion (FBC), and integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC). For PC coal plants, the unit types are: subcritical (36% net efficiency), supercritical (38%), and ultra- supercritical (41%). The efficiency of FBC plants is lower at only 34%, but they allow for greater fuel flexibility and lower emissions than PC facilities. IGCC has 40% net efficiencies and the low- est emissions of all coal-fired technologies. In IGCC, coal is first converted into natural gas and then burned in a combined cycle plant. The primary disadvantages are high capital costs and reliability questions. RDI Consulting analysis indicates that, even with required environmental control technologies, supercritical PC is the most competitive coal technology in the West, particularly for larger instal- lations. Nevertheless, the technology choice is often situation dependent. Where low-grade coal of variable heat content is available, FBC may be a more economic choice. While coal—at first glance—may appear the solution to western energy woes, there are many impediments to further expansion of coal generation. At current capital costs and efficiency, coal-fired power plants will only be able to compete with natural gas-fired power plants at low fuel costs and high capacity factors, even if natural gas prices remain at 3.25-3.50 $/mmBtu. A new coal plant would need to obtain coal at 1.00 $/mmBtu and run at a (very high) capacity factor of 88% to be profitable. While these econom- ics can be achieved, they are not easy to reach. Natural gas-fired generation, because of its high efficiency, remains a formidable competitor with coal. We also project a considerable surplus of generating capacity in the West from new gas-fired power plants by the time the first coal-fired projects would come on-line. In addition to higher cost at the plants, modern gas-fired plants also have an edge over coal because they are clean- er and can be sited near loads and thus can avoid most of the cost associated with transmis- sion line expansions. In contrast, the need for low fuel cost and the environmental impacts of coal plants suggest mine-mouth projects, which are, in most cases, far from the load and require investments in transmission. 114PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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