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FUEL FROM THE SKY: SOLAR POWER’S POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN ENERGY SUPPLY In the mid and late 1990s, wind power developers aggressively pursued generation opportuni- ties in Germany and Denmark, and soon the installed wind capacity in these two countries began to dwarf the 1,742 MW installed in California in the 1980s. European companies such as Nordex, NEG Micon, and Vestas began to scale up turbines and cut costs. Today, wind turbine capacities reach 3.8 MW, are up to 500 feet tall, and are even installed offshore and serviced by helicopters. The development was so fast and successful that even visionaries were surprised. While the German and Danish governments provided the long-term financial stability and incen- tives that allowed high-price wind power to enter the market, the technology development was left to the wind companies themselves. The foundation of research and development had already been laid and had brought wind turbine technology to a point where it was practical. Pushing the technology to new limits was left to the power of market competition. With an opportunity to make money in the market, wind turbine manufacturers brought down the cost of wind power dramatically. In Exhibit 44 we show that the levelized cost of wind power over the last 15 years has dropped by 70% from 150 $/MWh (15 ¢/kWh) in 1984 to 40 $/MWh (4 ¢/kWh) in 2000 and the cost continues to decline. Today, the energy cost of wind is begin- ning to compete with the cost of gas-fired generation at 45-48 $/MWh (assuming a natural gas price of 3.87 $/mmBtu). This dramatic reduction in the cost of electricity from wind is driven both by reductions in capital cost as well as improvements in the capacity factor of turbines. For example, new wind turbines located in Texas have shown capacity factors of up to 48% over the initial months of operation, and capacity factors of newer turbines if located at the same site are estimated to be 52%. Today, with the exception of Enron Wind (formerly Zond), the world wind turbine market is firmly in European hands. Wind power is a technology that was developed in the U.S. and paid for by Exhibit 44: Levelized Cost of Wind Power, 1984-2000 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 Year 1996 1998 2000 SOURCE: American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) NOTE: Levelized cost does not include the 10-year federal production tax credit. 108 Levelized Cost ($/MWh)PDF Image | Solar Fuel From The Sky
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