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From a meeting of NSRDB experts in 2003, goals for an updated NSRDB included both a ground-based data set to match as close as possible the original NSRDB and a new high-resolution gridded data set (2). The committee identified four pivotal questions to guide the direction of the update plan: 1) What solar model should replace the METSTAT model, 2) whether to expand the scope of NSRDB to include a gridded solar data set, 3) how to determine which sites to include in the update, and 4) how to characterize the compatibility of the new data set with the original NSRDB. Additionally, we expect to address the question of producing annual updates of the NSRDB as new data become available. Based on answers to those questions, we will make recommendations on how to proceed with a full ten-year update of the NSRDB. These preliminary recommendations are discussed below. 4.1 Solar Models Test data evaluation has shown little or no significant differences among models in their ability to produce solar irradiance estimates. The SUNYA model, however, has a clear advantage with its high-resolution output grid and a simpler, more reliable input data stream. If it is possible to produce a gridded satellite-based data set for all ten years, we recommend using the satellite model and choosing appropriate grid pixels to produce the ground-based data set (station-based, as in the original NSRDB). If the ten-year goal for the SUNYA model is not possible, we recommend using it for as many years as possible concurrently with a ground-based model. This approach allows the start of a longer-term gridded data set. In the likely event that data input data availability prevents production of a ten-year satellite-based data set, we must devise a hybrid scheme using ground-based models. For years prior to the ASOS switchover, we recommend using the unmodified METSTAT model, which is eminently compatible with the original NSRDB. However, for the ASOS period, with no clear performance advantage between the modified METSTAT and NRCC models, the decision rests with other factors, primarily ease of use and availability of input data. An investigation continues for these issues. 4.2 Missing Data and Site Selection The original NSRDB contained data for 239 stations that represented all sites for which a 30-year period of meteorological and other model input data could be obtained or interpolated. For the 1991-2000 update, we recommend including all sites that have significant periods for which solar modeling could be accomplished despite missing data. Significance in this context has yet to be defined, but could be based on a minimum percent of the ten-year period or intact spans of some minimum number of years. While gaps in the data frustrate efforts for a clean merge with the original NSRDB, missing data may not hamper many end-user applications. We recommend devising a dual classification system or even two distinct data sets to include as many sites as possible. A classic NSRDB data set would include those sites for which an uninterrupted period of record is available. All other sites would populate an ancillary data set for applications not requiring serially complete data. 4.3 Compatibility with the original NSRDB By using different models and different methods of cloud observations, discontinuities or inconsistencies may exist in data quality over the decade of the 1990s. We recommend characterizing the differences between the old and new NSRDB by 1) comparing model performance against measured data for both the original METSTAT model and the model used for the update, and 2) using the NASA SSE data grid for the 1990s as a reference for identifying differences among the hybrid methods. These characterizations will also help illuminate the limitations of the NSRDB for certain critical applications (such as climate change). 4.4 Future updates At the current level of funding, the planned release of the updated NSRDB will occur in 2006, which will leave even the most recent data five years old. Part of our production plan includes a method to produce incremental annual updates, which will be immediately applied to years 2001– 2005, then annually through 2009. In 2011, a 2001–2010 decade update will be produced, funding permitting. 5. CONCLUSION We have shown the feasibility of an updated NSRDB that not only extends the period of record for the existing NSRDB, but also exploits new technologies that pave the way for greatly enhanced solar resource assessment applications. We have made recommendations to overcome obstacles in the production of an updated NSRDB and will develop a comprehensive plan to complete the project sometime in 2006. 6. REFERENCES (1) Maxwell, E. L. (1995). Final Technical Report, National Solar Radiation Data Base (1961-1990), NREL/TP-463- 5PDF Image | Progress on an Updated National Solar Radiation Data Base for the United States
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