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with fossil (natural gas) energy. On an annual basis 75% or more of the energy to the plant comes from solar energy, with natural gas providing the balance. This hybrid capability allows the SEGS plants to achieve the high demonstrated on-peak capacity factor even though only about 5%–20% of the on-peak energy during any given month comes from natural gas. The fossil backup capability allows the SEGS plants to be fully dispatchable. From a power generation standpoint, most of the SEGS plants are performing within about 10% of original projections. The exceptions to this are (1) the first two projects, for which initial performance expectations were overly optimistic and (2) other plants that have not been maintained due to lack of available spare solar field parts. Based on the lessons learned from the SEGS plants, many of the solar field component problems experienced at the existing plants could be resolved in a next plant. In addition, better forecasts of expected future plant performance are possible. From an investor’s standpoint, none of the SEGS plants have performed up to their original financial projections. This is primarily due to a drop in avoided-cost energy prices, the price paid for the power generated by the plants. The SEGS plants represent the only successful commercial deployment of large-scale concentrating solar power technology to date. The development occurred during a period when energy prices were high and future expectations were for energy prices to continue to increase, special solar tax incentives existed, and utilities were forced to purchase power from solar QFs at very attractive rates. Since that time, fossil energy prices have reduced significantly, advances in combined cycle power plant technology have increased efficiency and reduced the cost of conventional power technologies, and a major restructuring of the electric power industry has begun resulting in much uncertainty. Given all these changes, many believe that it is not possible to develop large-scale solar power technologies in this country. As a result, over the last several years, the parabolic trough industry has focused much of its efforts on international market opportunities. Although the power market in developing countries appears to offer a number of opportunities for parabolic trough technologies due to high growth and the availability of special financial incentives for renewables, these markets are also plagued with many difficulties for developers. In recent years there has been some renewed interest in the U.S. domestic power market as a result of an emerging green market and green pricing incentives. Unfortunately, many of these market opportunities and incentives focus on smaller, more modular technologies (such as photovoltaics or wind power), and as a result they tend to exclude or are of minimum long- term benefit to large-scale concentrating solar power technologies. This paper looks at what is necessary for large-scale parabolic trough solar power plants to compete with state-of- the-art fossil power technology in a competitive U.S. power market. The paper starts by looking at the changes currently in progress in the power industry, and then looks at the cost of power from state-of-the-art fossil power technologies. Next, we review the cost of power from existing trough plants. Finally, we look at the opportunities for making trough plants competitive in today’s power market. U.S. POWER MARKET TRENDS The contemporary U.S. power market is defined by two major trends. The first is the declining cost of electricity (EIA, 1997). This is driven by advances in power technology and by declining capital and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Major efficiency improvements and cost reductions have occurred in gas turbine and combined cycle power plant technologies. As a result there is a significant shift away from coal steam plants toward natural gas-fired gas turbine technologies for new power generation. The current fossil fuel forecasts show only modest price increases (1%/year real) for natural gas and declining coal prices over the next 20 years. The second major trend has been the restructuring of the electric power industry. Although power sector reform is in progress all over the world, the U.S. power sector reform has primarily been the result of two factors — price differences and technology advances (EIA, 1996). The first, price differences, refers to both the variations in electricity cost among states and the difference between the cost for utilities and non-utilities to generate power. States with the highest costs tend to be leading the charge on restructuring, and industrial customers tend to be the driving force behind the effort. Their need to reduce power costs to remain competitive is driving them to look for the lowest-cost power alternatives. As a result of the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPACT), industrial customers are now able to obtain (or “wheel”) power from wholesale electric generators, generate their own power using new highly efficient gas turbine and combined cycle technologies, or at the very least renegotiate power contracts with their local utilities. Utilities that have thrived in a regulated monopoly environment are often finding it difficult to compete with unregulated non-utility generators (NUGs). All of these factors are resulting in a breakup of the conventional power utility into three separate components: generation, distribution, and transmission. Since many utilities cannot compete with NUGs to generate low-cost power, some are even getting out of the electric generation business. This brings up the major issue facing the restructuring of the electric power industry—stranded assets. “Stranded assets” refers to the money invested by utilities in power plants in the previously regulated environment. Because utilities were required to invest in these plants, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) feels they should be allowed to recover a reasonable amount of this money. The primary issue is how much is reasonable. Stranded assets have been estimated to be as high as $500 billion or as low as $30 billion for the entire United States. In any case, the restructuring is causing much uncertainty in the power industry. As a result, utilities have not been building many new power plants. In the absence of utilities building new Copyright © 1999 by ASMEPDF Image | Parabolic Trough Solar Power for Competitive U.S. Markets
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