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1. Introduction The DOE Solar Program began formulating the Systems-Driven Approach (SDA) to R&D portfolio management and prioritization with a workshop held in December 2002. The Solar Program Multi-Year Technical Plan (MYTP) states “All technical targets for R&D on the components and systems funded through the Solar Energy Technologies Program are derived from a common market perspective and national goals, and the resultant technologies are tested and validated in the context of established criteria for each market.” The SDA provides a framework for program planning that supports this objective. Under the tasks described below, data and tools are being developed to support application of the SDA to decision making by program management. The SDA team works closely with other projects, especially the PV Systems Analysis Project. 2. Technical Approach Before the SDA can be rigorously applied to the task of prioritizing research activities, the tools supporting it must be developed for each of the supporting tasks. SDA activities will ultimately support the full portfolio of technologies currently funded by the Solar Program. However, because detailed systems analysis models have already been developed for concentrating solar power and solar domestic hot water systems, the initial focus of the development effort is on flat-plate photovoltaic systems. Budget allocations by task are provided below. SDA process and provide a market context for the benchmarking and modeling efforts We are developing long-term market penetration projections for solar technologies by examining both the system and policy drivers of those technologies in various markets in both the short and long term. We are also improving the analytical basis for projecting the Program’s economic and environmental benefits. Existing models, such as MARKAL and the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) National Energy Modeling System, are used to carry out analysis, and feedback is provided on how to improve the representation of solar technologies in these models. New models are also being developed. We are also reviewing the feasibility of achieving the Program’s technical and economic targets. This task examines proposed research goals given technical, funding, and other constraints. Here, our emphasis is on reviewing the existing literature on cost and performance projections, drawing on experts from both within and outside the solar community to review detailed technology cost models, and grounding the Program’s targets in real-world experience. In carrying out these tasks, we use resources at NREL and SNL, as well as subcontracts (as described below in section 6) 2.2Benchmarking Benchmark data provide validated input to the SDA models and are used to validate model output. Data collection spans all elements of life- cycle cost, including component and system performance, as well as cost of components, system design, installation, permitting, operation and maintenance, financing, and so forth. Analysis of the data provides the basis for cost and performance models. We are currently focused on three types of data related to fielded PV systems. These are: installed cost, including labor and materials components; system performance information over time, including energy production, cause of failure, and down time; and post-installation costs, usually Task Title Analysis Benchmarking Modeling 2.1 Analysis FY 2004 Budget ($K) 557 402 424 Analysis is used to establish a sound basis for understanding the system and policy drivers of solar technologies in various markets. Results from analysis activities are linked to the broaderPDF Image | FY 2004 ANNUAL REPORT DOE Solar
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