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In the example plot, the user can readily see that to achieve a given LEC, a variety of combinations of inverter lifetime and inverter costs are possible. The model will help reveal and quantify these and other combinations. This information, along with other relevant considerations, will help inform researchers and program managers in determining the R&D path to targets that represent the most cost-effective and lowest-risk combination to achieve the target LEC. 3.2 PV Market, Value, and Policy Analysis With respect to value analysis, our emphasis has been on quantifying the reliability, security, and time-of-use value of PV. Two examples of the types of analysis that have come out of this effort include Perez et al. (2004) and Hoff and Margolis (2004). Perez et al. used satellite images to examine the availability of dispersed PV during the August 14, 2003, Northeast power outage. They concluded that had a local dispersed PV generation base amounting to at most a few hundred megawatts been on line, power transfers would have been reduced, point-of-use generation and voltage support would have been enhanced, and uncontrolled events would not have evolved into the massive blackout. This type of analysis helps build the foundation for understanding the potential for solar technologies to play a role in making the electricity grid more robust and secure. Hoff and Margolis compared the value of PV systems to residential customers under time-of- use (TOU) and standard rates (i.e., non-TOU rates). They found that the value of switching from a standard to a TOU rate and then adding a PV system is highly dependent on the customer’s original load profile and the size of the PV system installed. For example, for the case of a typical residential customer in PG&E’s service territory in California, they found that bundling PV with a TOU rate switch would increase the value of the PV system by 20% to more than 100%. They also examined existing TOU rates across the United States and found that they would increase the value of PV for most locations in the United States, with the increase ranging from negligible to more than 50%. 3.3 System Reliability and Cost Analysis Working with Arizona Public Service, an intensive study was conducted on 5 years of data collected from 49 grid-connected flat-plate PV systems that have been installed in its service territory over the last 5 years. These systems range in size from the smallest at 1.9 kW in several locations to multiple systems totaling 1.9 MWdc at the Prescott Airport. There are four different configurations—fixed horizontal, fixed south facing at latitude tilt, one-axis tracking horizontal with north-south axis orientation, and one-axis tracking 30-degree tilt (very near latitude tilt) with north-south axis orientation. This analysis investigated aspects of performance, cost, maintenance, installation, and design. Such an analysis is of high value to the benchmarking efforts of the Systems-Driven Approach, as well as to the partner organization. In this case, most of this installed PV capacity is in support of the Arizona Corporation Commission Environmental Portfolio Standard goal that encourages APS to generate 1.1% of its energy generation through renewable resources by 2007, with 60% of that amount from solar. For APS to continue to meet the requirements of this EPS, they must work to accurately assess all aspects of system cost and performance, so they can develop an accurate business model for the development and management of such projects. In this way, this activity serves as a model for utilities in other states that may need to conform to their own state-driven incentive programs. Figure 2 shows an example output from the analysis, showing the final annual yield of systems under these various configurations in Phoenix over the 5-year period. Final annual yield is defined as kWhac output divided by nameplate kWdc of the system.PDF Image | FY 2004 ANNUAL REPORT DOE Solar
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