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3. Results and Accomplishments • Converted preliminary Excel-based model to MatLab code (4/04). • Reviewed existing models for incorporation (5/04). • Conducted preliminary model review with selected participants (7/04). • Demonstrated beta version of PV performance, cost, and financing model (9/04). • Established framework for, and provided preliminary results of, determining the O&M costs of utility-scale PV systems in several configurations (9/04). 3.1 PV Performance, Cost, and Financing Model The system-performance simulation module calculates the transient, generally hour-by-hour, performance of a collection of components configured into an overall system design. These calculations are done in the background and are not visible to the user. To predict PV module performance, the model will initially use NREL’s PVW A TTS methodology (see http://rredc.nrel. gov/solar/codes_algs/PVW A TTS). Expanding on the current, simple cost model, future versions of the cost-input module will include detailed component- and systems-level capital costs, as well as a component- and systems-level O&M costs model as part of the default systems. These cost parameters will be accessible for modification by the user. Costs can be entered through the user interface or derived from a more detailed cost model implemented within a Microsoft Excel environment. As is the case with other portions of the model, the user will be able to not only modify default values, but to redefine the model itself. Such user-defined models will allow for sophisticated roll-up of materials and labor costs, with varying relationships to system size and capacity, to meet the user’s specific needs. The financial module calculates the system cost and revenue streams for a given configuration, its associated input data, energy production, and various project-specific financial input assumptions. Based on this information, the module will be used to calculate information of interest to the user, such as project earnings, detailed cash flows, debt payments, equity income, LEC, after-tax internal rate of return (IRR), and debt service coverage ratio. An important feature of the finance module is that it will offer a variety of standard schemes for financing solar-related projects. The user will be allowed to select financing mechanisms related to the project at hand, e.g., mortgage, commercial loan financed systems, or standard power project debt/equity financing. Default financial parameters are provided. However, the user is allowed to vary the financial parameters to address project-specific requirements or to assess the sensitivity of output parameters to financing assumptions. Preliminary results have been generated for the default 2.3-kW grid-tied residential PV system. To begin to assess the functionality of the PV performance, cost, and financial models, 5 of the more than 70 model parameters included in the model for this default system have been varied to allow the user to explore sensitivities. These variables include system lifetime, inverter efficiency, module efficiency, inverter cost, and inverter lifetime. While extensive validation must still be undertaken to gain further confidence in the model’s input and output accuracies, these preliminary results are informative in demonstrating the types of analyses that the model will enable. Figure 1 shows one of these results. Fig. 1. A plot of the impact of inverter lifetime on levelized energy cost for a range of inverter prices.PDF Image | FY 2004 ANNUAL REPORT DOE Solar
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