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• Continue analyses of parameters required for determination of levelized energy costs of installed PV systems as input to a revised DOE Solar Program Multi-Year Technical Plan. _____________________________________________________________________________________ 1. Introduction The PV Systems Analysis Task consists of systems performance and cost modeling, market/value/policy analysis, and benchmarking projects. The primary function of the performance/cost model is to allow users to investigate the impact of variations in physical, cost, and financial parameters to better understand their impact on key figures of merit. Figures of merit related to the cost and performance of these systems include, but are not limited to, system output, peak and annual system efficiency, levelized energy cost (LEC), and system capital and O&M costs. The benchmarking effort is structured to document the current status of these and other key figures of merit. The model is intended for use by DOE and laboratory management and research staff and is a critical element in the implementation of the Systems Driven Approach to Solar Program planning. The model may be used by members of the solar industry to inform internal R&D direction and to estimate systems cost and performance. The analysis portion of the task is structured to consider market penetration models and to capture the value of PV systems in various markets. 2. Technical Approach For the systems model, particular emphasis was placed upfront on the design of a user interface that could meet the needs of a diverse set of users. User profiles were developed to provide a general description of DOE, laboratory, and industry users and their motivation for using the modeling tool. The working model consists of a user-interface module for selecting and providing input data on the system configuration and operating environment, a system-performance module that simulates the hour-by-hour output of the selected system for the lifetime of a project, a cost-input module for providing simple or detailed cost inputs for system components, and a financial- analysis module for calculating system economics. The modules work in concert to generate the physical and financial figures of merit relevant to the particular user. The analysis team focused its initial efforts on three main tasks. The first task is to develop long- term market penetration projections for solar technologies. This effort involves examining both the system and policy drivers of solar technologies in various markets in both the short and long term, as well as improving the analytical basis for projecting the Solar Program’s economic and environmental benefits. Here, our emphasis is on models and modeling: using existing models—such as EIA’s National Energy Modeling System, MARKAL, and others—to carry out analysis, examining the structure of various models and providing feedback on how to improve the representation of solar technologies to modelers, and developing new models that will help meet the needs of the broader Systems- Driven Approach modeling effort. The analysis portion of this task also set out to evaluate policies, as well as other factors, that impact the value of PV technologies in a variety of markets. This task involves using existing models (such as the Clean Power Estimator), spreadsheets, and other tools. Here, our emphasis is on using analytical tools to quantify how changing policies, rate structures, system designs, and other factors will impact the value of solar technologies to consumers, utilities, governments, and other actors. In carrying out these projects we use resources at NREL and SNL (described in the table below), as well as subcontracts (described in Section 6). Task Title PV Advisor Modeling PV Market, Value, and Policy Analysis System Reliability and Cost Analysis FY 2004 Budget ($K) 427 536 204PDF Image | FY 2004 ANNUAL REPORT DOE Solar
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