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Belize Energy Sector Diagnostic PUC 43 cogeneration139 and 20MW of wind energy) of renewable energy140 and easily satisfy the ten year projected peak electricity demand of 96.3 MW. However, even if one subscribes to the more optimistic perspective, identified RE opportunities will just cover ten year demand and thus satisfy requirements only in the medium term. Whatever the perspective on RE’s contribution to the energy mix, the experts concur that without the discovery of significant oil reserves, the application of renewable energy for electricity supply underpins Belize’s energy security measures. Informing the discussion significantly is the question of sustainability and reliability of the existing electricity mix. Consider this, in 2002 BEL experienced five hundred and sixty seven (567) unplanned outages, due to various reasons, countrywide141. Of this, seventy-seven or 13.5% were attributable to CFE either at generation or transmission. The average duration of outages throughout the year was roughly two hours. However, the duration spread is significant, starting with a lower limit of six minutes to an upper limit of twenty-one hours. Add to this the number of planned outages for repair and maintenance, calculated at two hundred and twenty six (226) and one could infer at least two outages per day, everyday in 2002142. The outage frequency was of course not so neatly spread and it is fair to say that there were days in 2002 where electricity supply was constant. However an inference of the data is that at least in 2002, electricity supply in Belize was generally unreliable. Additionally, the Commercial and Industrial Energy Survey, carried out by the PUC in 2003, suggests that historically supply has been unreliable, causing businesses to invest in back-up capacity. Twenty- nine percent (29%) of the companies surveyed in Belize had standby generators for emergency generation in 2002, comprising over 14.5 MW of generation capacity.143 Given the general unreliability of the domestic grid and to a lesser extent imports, Belize’s current electricity supply mix cannot sustain expected growth patterns, a situation clearly recognized by the dominant provider. In early 2003, BEL’s CEO declared that their priority was to increase supply to keep up with demand growth, and to improve reliability. He also opined that the company needed to reduce the dependence on imported electricity, “since it is unreliable and the price has doubled in the last three years.”144 In the final analysis, it is clear that unless current exploratory initiatives yield oil in commercial quantities, the best Belize can aspire to, in order to improve energy security is to reduce the dependency on imports in the electricity sub-sector, practice energy conservation and review the possibility of biofuels to ameliorate the extreme dependence in the transport sub-sector. Strategies to reduce both the reliance on imported fuels and imported electricity, will likely involve the development of RE. If the application of RE in the electricity sub-sector is limited and/or there is no feasible utility for ethanol in the Belize context, then energy security defined as the ability to ensure the 139 Although BELCOGEN expects to provide only 13MWs in the first instance, output capacity is 25MWs. They are planning to establish the capacity to provide 25% of the electricity mix Peak demand in ten years is forecasted to be 96.3MW. 25% of this is roughly 24MW. 140 to its existing 25 MW hydro facility 141 The three most popular reasons were CFE at 13.5%, HV conductor faults at 42.8% and pole issues at 12%. Courtesy BEL. 142 Total outages were spread across the entire country and in some cases represent simultaneous outages across two, three, four, five or six districts. Unplanned 567 planned + 226 planned = 793/365. 143 Commercial and Industrial Energy Survey, PUC, September 2003 144 Lynn Young CEO BEL, in a presentation made to the PSC, courtesy of the PUC.PDF Image | Energy for Sustainable Development Toward a National Energy Strategy for Belize Energy Sector Diagnostic
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