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This analysis provides insights on California’s PV market by exploring cost trends over time, and by helping to untangle the various factors that affect the installed cost of PV systems. Results may also have important policy ramifications, because they address the interaction between incentive levels and installed costs and the relative cost of different solar applications. Finally, this analysis provides a critical update to DOE’s benchmarking, validation, and analysis efforts, as part of its Systems-Driven Approach. 2. Technical Approach The type of data provided by each of the two rebate programs is suitable for multivariate regression techniques, with pre-rebate installed costs as the dependent variable, and numerous potential drivers of pre-rebate installed costs as independent variables. LBNL engaged Neenan Associates, a well-respected applied-economics consulting firm with statistical expertise, to execute the multivariate regression analysis. To evaluate different hypotheses and policy design issues, we constructed four separate regression models, applied to each of the two datasets. Results are presented both in terms of regression coefficients and their statistical significance (with textual explanation in laymen’s terms of important implications), as well as graphical representation of interesting bivariate relationships. Robert Margolis of NREL provided input to the analysis. 3. Results and Accomplishments Work on the project began during summer 2005, with the statistical analysis complete in October 2005. Drafting of a formal LBNL report is currently under way, with external peer review expected to take place in December 2005. Results will be of interest to policymakers at both the state and federal levels, as well as to DOE’s Solar Program. 4. Planned FY 2006 Activities We plan to complete this project in early FY 2006 (using FY 2005 funding). Pending interest and additional funding, we will potentially expand the analysis to other state PV programs (e.g., New Jersey, New York), and ideally conduct a cross- state cost comparison to try to explain, for example, why installed system costs in New Jersey appear to be significantly lower than installed system costs in California. 5. Major FY 2005 Publications We began drafting a major LBNL report on this project in FY 2005, and will complete this report in early FY 2006. We also intend to publish our results in an appropriate peer-reviewed journal. 6. University and Industry Partners The following organizations partnered in the project’s research activities during FY 2005. Organization/ Principal Investigator Neenan Associates Peter Cappers Location/e-mail Syracuse, NY pcappers@bneenan.com Description/Title of Research Activity Conducted multivariate regression analysis of California PV cost data. FY 2005 ($K) $15 Cost Share ($K) Entirely cost-shared* *Funds were provided under a different DOE, non-PAE, account. 179 EERE Crosscutting ActivitiesPDF Image | DOE Solar Energy Technologies Program
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